Will Mnangagwa defy odds on 30 July?

Zimbabwe is heading for harmonised polls on 30 July to elect a substantive president following a coup that toppled nonagenarian leader R.G Mugabe last November. ED took over on interim basis to finish off Mugabe term which will lapse end of this month.

Now, the incumbent faces stern test from MDC Alliance candidate Nelson Chamisa who rose through the ranks of the opposition party as youth leader, spokesperson of the party, organising secretary and VP. Chamisa took over the reigns of the party after the death of Morgan Tsvangirai who succumbed to colony cancer in February this year. The youthful leader also faces internal rebellion from erstwhile comrades who challenged his ascendancy citing that he wrapped the power unconstitutionally, this later led to a split. Although Chamisa remains with nearly three quarters of the top brass, the other former VP went away with the national organising secretary and the spokesperson of the party. Former VP, Thokozani Khupe, is also running for the top ticket on July 30, however the main battle lies with incumbent ED and Nelson Chamisa.

WHO SHALL BLOOM BETTER THAN THE OTHER?

Of the two, who shall bloom more than the other after the polls? This time, my assertions are that its dog eat dog, Nelson Chamisa will give ED a good run of his money because of his charisma, shrewdness and oratory skills which his main challenger lacks. Furthermore, age will give Chamisa more advantage over the incumbent given that ED will soon be octogenarian, and at this stage, I don't think the electorate might bank on a person of that age in these contemporary times. On the same vein, ED is swimming in an corrupt-infested pool, and the worst thing is that his generation messed the the pool. Can he fix the problem two weeks now before the vote? It remains to be known if ED can afford to addressing the current mess in his advantage few days before vote cast.

Amid claims that ED was implicated on corruption and barbarism under the auspices of Mugabe, I am of the opinion that that will cost him dearly on the ballot. Despite the fact that his new administration is now piling all the blame on his predecessor, the electorate is fully aware that Mugabe does not solely dilapidate the jewel of this country, but rather it was a collective effort of those who had surrounded him for years and undoubtedly ED was among them because of closeness to the Mugabes that dates back to the liberation struggle. I am sure that bonding to the Mugabes places him on a lesser advantage than his main rival.

Contrary to that view, ED may have an upper hand over Nelson Chamisa on power and influence on administering the election. Chances are that, if left unchecked, he can collude with ZEC to steal victory the same way Mugabe did in 2013 as attested by the Ross camp incident where junior police officers were coerced to vote under the instruction of their superiors, in the absence of ZEC, observers and party agents. This, I'm sure, typifies that ED can emerge victorious if ZEC provide scaffolds.

Notwithstanding the aforementioned, the presence of international observers, particularly EU places election manipulators on tight rope in that they want to see things done in accordance to the best standards of UN, AU and SADC principles governing elections. Although we are yet to see how much influence they have in this election given that ZEC started the rigging on broad day light at Ross camp, but the good thing is that MDC Alliance's election machinery is geared full throttle. They are embedded with the voters countrywide, who in this case enlightenment its leaders about the clandestine move at Ross camp and certainly these are the junior officers who were deprived of their right to vote by their superiors. Even though some votes went wayside, the opposition emerged victorious in postal voting, as the system dished votes to Zanu-PF since time immemorial, now ZEC was forced to stop the malpractice.

Put bluntly, it will nice time for Nelson Chamisa, as the matter spilled to the court seeking annulment of votes, if it brings favourable ruling. Nevertheless, as things tend to be much different, we are hopeful that the constitutional court will do the honourable thing by annulling the clandestine votes. I have high spirits that the current Chief Justice Luke Malaba will discharge, through his vigor and circumvent, a fair judgement that uphold the rights of citizens for there is overwhelming evidence that the rights of the people of Zimbabwe was violated at Ross camp, thus the whole process at must be annulled. Can Luke Malaba be another David Maraga of Kenya? No one knows.

Also, following persistent protests and threats to boycott polls, the election body has submitted to the demands of the MDC Alliance as Justice Priscilla Chigumba insinuated her envisaged meeting with all political parties to build consensus. If effected, it will bolster the chances of opposition success in this election.

Last but not least, as postulated by some analysts, ED may defy odds through opening up all avenues that lead to free, fair and credible elections for chances are that he commands a huge following that can earn him resounding victory without rigging. Should ED takes heed, we are likely to see a major turn of events in our political landscape, the first of its kind since post independence Zimbabwe.

the author is a local human rights defender: gudobenny@gmail.com