Zimbabwe food security to improve

Zimbabwe's food security situation is expected to improve in the second quarter of the year, buoyed by forecasts of above-average rainfall and the prospects of a favourable 2026 harvest, according to the latest Famine Early Warning Systems Network (Fews Net) report.

Fews Net says the anticipated harvest will result in mostly Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes across much of the country. Many rural households are expected to rely on food from their own production, easing pressure on markets and household budgets.

"As market supplies increase, staple-food prices are expected to be at a seasonal low, improving access for non-crop-producing households, especially in urban areas," Fews Net said.

The report noted that above-average rainfall recorded between October 1 and December 15 across most parts of the country supported land preparation and planting activities. However, it also highlighted uneven rainfall patterns, with Mashonaland Central, northern areas of Mashonaland East and localised parts of Masvingo province receiving below-average rainfall during the same period.

"Key informants report localised variability in rainfall distribution even in areas recording above-average rains, with some pockets experiencing drier conditions and uneven spatial and temporal distribution," the report said. Despite these challenges, the planted area has expanded compared to last season, while pasture and veld conditions have generally improved across most regions.

Fews Net also reported that government's recent suspension of import duty on fertilisers, including ammonium nitrate and urea, is expected to boost supply and reduce prices. The policy shift is anticipated to improve farmers' access to inputs and support higher crop yields during the season.

At the same time, the report warned that above-average cumulative rainfall could lead to increased incidences of crop pests and livestock diseases. Poor households may struggle to afford pesticides and veterinary drugs due to high prices and limited incomes. While this is not expected to cause widespread production losses, some affected households could experience reduced yields and incomes.

Water availability is projected to improve following favourable rainfall in the 2024–25 season, which helped raise groundwater levels. This is expected to enhance household and livelihood water access during the 2025–26 rainy season.

Food prices, including maize, are expected to rise during the lean season between January and March before declining once harvesting begins in April. Fews Net said processed foods such as maize meal and cooking oil may register above-average price increases ahead of the green harvest, which should ease shortages. By March, new harvests are expected to begin closing food gaps, although some areas will likely remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) conditions, where households meet minimum food needs but struggle to cover non-food essentials.

The report also projected Crisis-level outcomes (IPC Phase 3) in a few surplus-producing areas of Mashonaland that were adversely affected by poor rainfall in the 2024–25 season. Nonetheless, seasonal low grain prices are expected to improve market access in many areas.

"However, despite these consumption improvements, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will persist as poor households continue to struggle to meet their non-food needs," Fews Net said.