Zimbabwe platinum output to remain stable

Platinum production in Zimbabwe is expected to remain stable this year, with global demand projected to rise by 3% to approximately 226,000 ounces, according to a report released by the World Platinum Council (WPC) yesterday.

The WPC's report indicates that while the basket price for platinum group metals (PGMs) has stabilized, the low-price environment will continue to challenge the mining industry. For the full year, global mine supply is anticipated to contract by 2%, though this will be partially mitigated by a weak but slowly recovering recycling sector.

“Global supply is expected to total 7,089,000 ounces, marking a 1% decline from the previous year (-71,000 ounces),” the WPC said.

Platinum demand is set to increase by 3% year-on-year, reaching 8,118,000 ounces. This growth is driven by expected net positive holdings in Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and an increase in sales of large bars in China.

In North America, platinum supply is projected to remain stable, with modest growth anticipated from Sibanye-Stillwater's US operations, which are recovering from a shaft incident in 2023. However, this growth is expected to be counterbalanced by a decrease in by-product output from Canadian nickel mining. In Zimbabwe, platinum output is forecast to remain stable throughout the year.

During the second quarter, Zimbabwe's platinum production held steady at 125,000 ounces compared to the previous year, as a decline at Zimplats was offset by increased output at Unki.

In Russia, production fell by 5% year-on-year to 181,000 ounces, primarily due to reduced platinum content in Nornickel's ore. Maintenance work on Furnace #2 at the Nadezhda Metallurgical Plant is expected to impact platinum production in the latter half of the year.

Overall, total mine supply is forecast to decline by 2% year-on-year to 5,508,000 ounces in 2024. This would be the lowest level of total mine supply since the WPC began tracking data in 2013, excluding the impacts of strikes in 2014 and COVID-19 in 2020.

The WPC noted that refined production is expected to decrease across South Africa, Zimbabwe, Russia, and North America, with South African output facing challenges due to restructuring plans, shaft and section closures, and slower production ramp-ups.

The report also highlighted that ongoing high interest rates, political uncertainty, and unclear regulations related to energy transition are affecting both consumer sentiment and commodity markets.