Zimbabwe to get normal to above-normal rains

The Meteorological Services Department (MSD) has reassured the nation that the 2024/25 rainfall season is expected to bring normal to above-normal rains, alleviating concerns of another drought in Zimbabwe and parts of Southern Africa, despite predictions from some international climate forecasters.

This announcement comes as the MSD provides an update on Cyclone Bheki, the second tropical storm of the season, which formed over the Indian Ocean. The department assured the public that the storm, while being closely monitored, remains distant and does not pose a direct threat to the region at this time.
Cyclone Bheki Update

"Cyclone Bheki is still far from the shores of Southern Africa, and the MSD will continue to track its progress, providing timely updates to the nation," said Mr. James Ngoma, head of forecasting at MSD. Authorities are vigilant but confident that the storm will not directly impact the country.
Rainfall Predictions and Early Showers

Southern Zimbabwe has already begun to experience thunderstorms and sporadic rains. Harare's Belvedere area recorded the highest rainfall of 34mm on Saturday, followed by Nkayi with 20mm, and Tsholotsho with 7mm. These early rains are a positive sign for farmers and the public, offering hope for a better agricultural season.

The MSD has maintained its forecast of normal to above-normal rains, starting slow but expected to increase as the season progresses. "We anticipate that rainfall distribution will improve as we move into the latter part of the year, with more consistent rains expected from December onwards," said Mr. Ngoma.
Global Forecasts and La Niña Updates

Despite concerns raised by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology regarding potential La Niña conditions, the MSD maintains that the likelihood of a significant La Niña is low. While the Australian forecast suggested the phenomenon would be weak and short-lived, Mr. Ngoma confirmed that Zimbabwe is not facing the severe drought conditions typically associated with El Niño.

"We are projecting a weak La Niña pattern, which should not significantly impact rainfall, and we expect normal to above-normal rainfall from December to March," he said, aligning with forecasts from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and other global climate agencies.
Looking Ahead: Impact on Agriculture and Food Security

The region suffered from low rainfall during the 2023-2024 cropping season, exacerbated by El Niño conditions, leading to food insecurity and water shortages. The announcement of a better rainfall outlook is a welcome relief for farmers and rural communities that rely on seasonal rains for their crops.
Weather Forecast and Precautionary Measures

For today, the MSD has predicted mild to warm conditions across the country, with isolated thunderstorms in areas north of the watershed. In the southern regions - including Matabeleland South and Masvingo - warmer and sunnier weather is expected, although evening showers may occur.

The MSD also issued precautionary measures for residents in thunderstorm-prone areas, urging them to stay indoors when thunder roars. Communities are advised to secure rooftops, particularly in schools, as rains could be accompanied by strong winds and hail in some areas.
Public Preparedness and Vigilance

As the storm season continues, authorities emphasize the importance of preparedness. While Cyclone Bheki's trajectory remains uncertain, its presence underscores the need for vigilance, especially in southern Zimbabwe near Tsholotsho and Masvingo. The public is encouraged to stay informed and monitor updates from official channels.

In conclusion, the MSD's assurance of normal to above-normal rainfall offers hope for a stronger agricultural season, with authorities actively monitoring storm developments and preparing the public for any potential disruptions.