Zimbabwe maintained a trade surplus in February

Zimbabwe maintained a trade surplus in February, although faster import growth, rising global oil prices and potential disruptions to gold exports are beginning to cloud the outlook.

Exports increased by 4.1% to US$1.01 billion, up from US$969.5 million in January. However, imports grew at a much quicker pace, rising 12% to US$963.1 million from US$859.6 million, narrowing the trade margin.

Gold remained the backbone of Zimbabwe's export sector, accounting for 45.7% of total shipments. The Dubai market continued to dominate as the leading destination, absorbing US$468.4 million worth of exports, largely driven by bullion trade through the global hub.

However, this concentration presents a growing risk. Ongoing geopolitical tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran could disrupt established gold trade routes and settlement systems, potentially affecting Zimbabwe's export earnings in the near term.

On the import side, fuel and related petroleum products remained the largest category, accounting for 18.6% of the total import bill. With global oil prices trending upward, the cost of fuel imports is expected to rise further, placing additional pressure on the country's trade balance.

Machinery was the second-largest import category, reflecting ongoing investment and industrial demand within the economy.

Zimbabwe sourced most of its imports from South Africa and China, while countries such as Bahrain and Bahamas featured prominently as suppliers of fuel products.

While the country remains in surplus for now, the combination of rising import costs and external risks to key export commodities suggests that Zimbabwe's trade position could come under increasing strain in the coming months.