Zimbabwe trade surplus shrinks as imports outpace exports

Zimbabwe's trade surplus is narrowing as imports continue to grow faster than exports, raising concerns about the sustainability of the country's external balance.

Latest data from the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency shows that while exports recorded modest growth, a sharp rise in imports significantly reduced the trade surplus in February 2026.

According to ZimStat's External Trade Statistics, exports increased by 4.1% to US$1.01 billion during the month. However, imports surged by 12% to US$963.1 million, eroding the trade balance.

As a result, the trade surplus declined to US$46.5 million — a steep 57.7% drop from the US$109.9 million recorded in January.

"In February 2026, exports increased to US$1.01 billion (4.1%) while imports increased to US$963.1 million (12%). The resulting trade balance amounted to a surplus of US$46.5 million, a 57.7% decrease from the January 2026 surplus of US$109.9 million," ZimStat said.

Economists say the trend highlights Zimbabwe's continued dependence on imports, particularly fuel, machinery and food, while export earnings remain concentrated in a narrow range of commodities such as gold and tobacco.

Data shows that semi-manufactured gold accounted for 45.7% of total exports in February, followed by tobacco at 27.5% and other mineral substances at 9%. Industrial supplies made up 95.9% of total exports, underscoring limited diversification.

Regionally, exports within the Southern African Development Community were led by nickel ores, coke and industrial diamonds, which together contributed over half of the bloc's export value.

Exports to the European Union were dominated by tobacco and industrial diamonds, while trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area framework was driven by nickel ores, coke, and iron and steel products.

The United Arab Emirates remained Zimbabwe's largest export destination, accounting for 46.4% of total export earnings, followed by China (34.3%), South Africa (9.8%), Indonesia and Zambia.

On the import side, industrial supplies accounted for the largest share at 35.6%, followed by capital goods (24%) and fuels and lubricants (18.3%). Key imports included mineral fuels, machinery, electrical equipment, cereals and vehicles.

Within SADC, imports were mainly cereals, machinery, fuels and iron and steel, while imports from the European Union were dominated by machinery, vehicles and pharmaceutical products.

Zimbabwe's import structure remains concentrated among a few key partners. South Africa accounted for 35.2% of total imports, followed by China (22.4%), Bahrain (8.7%) and the Bahamas (3.8%).

"South Africa dominates imports with a 35.2% share. China (22.4%), Bahrain (8.7%), Bahamas (3.8%) follow as key suppliers. Together, the top four countries account for nearly 71% of total imports," ZimStat noted.

Analysts warn that unless Zimbabwe expands value-added exports and strengthens domestic production, the shrinking surplus could turn into a deficit, placing further pressure on foreign currency reserves and economic stability.