China scraps tariffs for all but one African nation

China will eliminate tariffs on imports from nearly all African countries starting Friday, extending a sweeping duty-free policy to 53 nations across the continent - with Eswatini the only exception due to its diplomatic ties with Taiwan.

The expanded policy builds on an earlier initiative introduced in December 2024, when Beijing granted zero-tariff access to 33 of Africa's least-developed countries. The new arrangement will remain in force until April 30, 2028, although its future beyond that date remains uncertain.

Chinese authorities have framed the move as a landmark gesture, positioning the country as the first major global economy to offer unilateral, continent-wide duty-free access to African exports.

Analysts say the policy is as much about geopolitics as it is about trade.

According to Lauren Johnston of the AustChina Institute, China is presenting itself as a pro-trade, Africa-friendly partner - in contrast to the more protectionist stance associated with Donald Trump and the United States, which recently imposed tariffs on several African nations.

While some of those US tariffs - initially as high as 30% - were later reduced to around 10% following a court ruling, the contrast has amplified Beijing's soft power push on the continent.

Economists say the zero-tariff regime could boost African exports, particularly in agriculture, with products such as coffee, tea, nuts and avocados expected to benefit from improved access to Chinese markets.

Countries like Kenya stand to gain from rising Chinese demand for agricultural goods, while major exporters such as South Africa, Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are already key trading partners.

However, experts caution that tariffs are not the main barrier to African trade.

The continent continues to run a significant trade deficit with China, which surged by 65% last year to approximately $102 billion. African exports remain heavily concentrated in raw materials such as oil and minerals, while higher-value manufactured goods flow in the opposite direction.

Analysts argue that without deeper structural reforms, the benefits of tariff-free access will be uneven.

More industrialised economies like South Africa and Morocco are better positioned to scale exports, while less-developed countries may struggle due to limited manufacturing capacity, weak logistics networks and infrastructure gaps.

"Tariff reductions alone cannot address structural constraints," said Jervin Naidoo of Oxford Economics Africa, pointing to the need for industrialisation and value-chain development.

Alfred Schipke of the East Asian Institute added that while short-term gains may be modest, long-term benefits could emerge if African countries diversify exports and expand production capacity.

Experts also highlight shifting consumer trends within China as a potential opportunity. Growing demand for products such as coffee and nuts could open new markets for African producers.

Still, economists warn that market access alone will not deliver sustained fiscal gains. Wangari Kebuchi noted that while the policy may boost foreign exchange earnings and support sectors like agriculture and mining in the short term, broader economic transformation will require coordinated investment in infrastructure, industry and trade systems.

As Beijing deepens its economic engagement with Africa, the zero-tariff initiative underscores both the opportunities - and the enduring challenges - in rebalancing one of the world's most unequal trade relationships.