Zimbabweans are shunning supermarkets

Zimbabwe's economy may be on track to grow by 5% this year, but for millions of consumers the reality on the ground tells a different story, with households increasingly abandoning formal supermarkets in favour of tuckshops where basic goods are significantly cheaper.

The shift highlights a growing disconnect between positive macroeconomic indicators and the lived experiences of ordinary Zimbabweans, many of whom continue to grapple with weak incomes, high unemployment and rising living costs.

According to a new 2026 Consumer Report by IH Securities, a basket of 16 staple household products costs approximately 12% less in tuckshops than in formal retail outlets, making the informal sector the preferred shopping destination for cash-strapped consumers.

The findings come as Government points to improving economic fundamentals, including a revised 7.5% growth rate for 2025, up from 1.8% the previous year, and relatively stable inflation levels.

Official figures show Zimbabwe's ZiG-denominated annual inflation averaged 4.3% between January and May, while US dollar inflation averaged 1.64% over the same period. Monthly inflation averaged 0.44% in both currencies, resulting in cumulative price increases of around 2.2%.

Despite these improvements, many households say they are yet to feel meaningful relief.

"The consumer environment is divided," IH Securities noted in its report.

"Single-digit official inflation masks accelerating real shelf prices in formal retail, where rentals, utilities and compliance costs force through-the-till hikes even as the informal sector emerges as the more resilient engine of spending."

The brokerage estimates that broad unemployment stands at 37.1%, rising sharply to 58.2% among young people aged between 15 and 24 years.

As a result, many households are increasingly relying on informal trading, artisanal mining, gig work and remittances estimated to exceed US$2 billion annually.

According to the report, the 16-item basket costs US$27.45 in tuckshops, offering savings that become substantial over the course of a month for low-income families.

The largest price differences are found in processed and import-dependent products.

Petroleum jelly is reportedly 50% cheaper in tuckshops, toothpaste 45% cheaper, mayonnaise 40% cheaper, washing powder 35% cheaper, sugar 26% cheaper and soft drinks 20% cheaper.

The report attributes much of the price disparity to the additional costs borne by formal retailers, including value-added tax, the Intermediated Money Transfer Tax (IMTT), compliance costs and import-related charges.

However, supermarkets retain an advantage in certain categories where economies of scale and local production help reduce prices.

IH Securities found that a 10-box pack of matches costs half as much in formal retail outlets, while margarine and flour are about 13% cheaper than in tuckshops.

The growing preference for informal retail is also reflected in consumer spending patterns beyond basic groceries.

Earlier this year, listed retailer Axia Corporation reported record sales during Black Friday and Christmas promotions, suggesting consumers are increasingly postponing discretionary purchases until discounts and favourable credit terms become available.

Economist Chenayi Mutambasere said the divergence between economic growth figures and household experiences highlights a longstanding challenge in measuring economic wellbeing.

"GDP tells us how the economy is performing; it does not tell us how citizens are performing," she said.

"The key question is not whether the economy is growing, but whether that growth is creating jobs, raising incomes and improving the quality of life of ordinary Zimbabweans."

Mutambasere noted that while macroeconomic indicators have improved, many Zimbabweans remain trapped in the informal sector, wages continue to lag behind living costs and access to quality public services remains constrained.

"The disconnect arises because GDP measures the size of economic activity, not how the benefits of that activity are distributed," she said.

"If growth is not inclusive, if formal employment is not expanding and if real household incomes are not rising, people may not feel the benefits even when the macroeconomic indicators are positive."

She added that the ultimate test of economic success is whether growth translates into better jobs, stronger purchasing power, improved public services and reduced poverty.

For now, the growing migration of consumers from supermarkets to tuckshops suggests that many households remain focused on one priority above all else: finding the cheapest way to make ends meet.

As Zimbabwe pursues ambitious growth targets, the challenge for policymakers will be ensuring that economic gains are reflected not only in national statistics but also in the everyday lives of citizens.