Are Liverpool The New Leeds?
They said it with Chelsea and they say it with Manchester City, that money can't buy you trophies. In isolation its true, but conversely you definitely won't win trophies without money.
The advantage Chelsea and City have though is that their business model doesn't necessarily require the income to balance their expenditure, although I'm sure the owners would like it to. That condition however is a requirement at Manchester United, but the global brand and demand for tickets at Old Trafford mean it is difficult to see their income dropping off severely without a long run of bad form - which is difficult to see happening.
Arsenal have lived by that rule for a long time now, possibly the most prudently run club in the Premier League, but as a result have suffered a trophy drought - always making the top 4 and progressing in the Champions League, but never quite having enough to go all the way.
Tottenham's spending in recent years evades much coverage when the press talk about 'big spenders' but they are up there. But if they are to continue to spend and maintain their top 4 challenge they need to cash in on this year's Champions League qualification and reinvest.
I've already used the phrase 'top 4' a couple of times and mentioned five clubs, which leaves Liverpool as the sixth club. Which, on the evidence of last season, the lack of summer spending, and the performance last night seems about right. This from a club whose fans expect European Cup success, due to their history. However the Champions League is more important to the men who run the club than it is the fans.
Its no secret as to what a goldmine the Champions League is for clubs, with all the enhanced TV money, sponsorship, corporate sales, merchandise etc. Liverpool have to live without that money this season, and I'm sure most of the 'Big 6' can survive that for one season.
However, failure to bounce straight back will need cloth cut accordingly very quickly even to just catch up on the losses already made, let alone incorporate the future losses. Just ask Leeds United.
Remember the Elland Road club making the Champions League semi-final in 2001? Cue a belief they were now a permanent attendee at European football's top table, and they spent money on that basis, under the stewardship of Peter Ridsdale. Many stories now do the rounds of the lack of control over wages offered to players (google will help you find stories about Seth Johnson and fishtanks, for starters), but that all came crashing down when the unthinkable happened. Not only did Leeds start to miss out on Champions League qualification, but in 2004, just three years on from the semi-final they were relegated, and those huge cntracts were causing the club to haemorraghe cash. The required cutbacks meant further downturns in onfield performance, while they were not enough to improve finances off the pitch either, and in 2007, hours before their season ended with a drubbing at the hands of Derby County, Leeds went into administration and were relegated to the third tear. Few football fans shed a tear given the club's well-documented history under Don Revie, but also because it was a big spender gone wrong, humbled.
Liverpool won the Champions League in 2005, and while I don't see them getting relegated this season (although they wouldn't be the first club to dispel that sort of belief), I don't see them getting back into the top 4 and hence the Champions League. And if they don't do it this season, it will get more and more difficult as they find they have become a have not, rather than a have. Remember also Leeds success and rapid failure thereafter came in a more buoyant economy, both in the wider world, with credit much more forthcoming, and with more liquidity in the transfer market, allowing them to at least recoup some of the monies they had spent on the stars they had brought in. Liverpool will not have that luxury. There are now only three or four clubs who can splash the cash, and Barcelona are hinting that their may be reining in their profligacy, while Chelsea have been more austere in recent seasons.
With Liverpool's reputation and global awareness, it isn't beyond the realms of possibility for a 'money no object' owner to come in and return the club to the elite level, but if not, and those options seem to be crossing themselves out by the week, Liverpool could be back to being an also ran, as they were before Bill Shankly came in in 1959. Roy Hodgson did a great job at Fulham on a budget, and it wouldn't be a surprise if he has to employ those skills again sooner rather than later at Liverpool.
