Chiwenga's rise, Chamisa's collapse, and Mnangagwa's quiet power play

Zimbabwe's political theatre is bracing for its next act - and it's not short on ghosts. At the centre looms Vice President Constantino Chiwenga, a man whose military pedigree and populist rhetoric have positioned him as heir apparent to Emmerson Mnangagwa. But can a man accused of complicity in the Gukurahundi massacres of the 1980s ever lead with legitimacy?

Chiwenga's recent crusades against "tenderpreneurs" and "zvigananda" (bloodsuckers) suggest a man preparing for power, not just posturing. His speeches are fiery, his ambition palpable. Yet beneath the bravado lies a haunting silence: will Chiwenga ever acknowledge or apologise for his alleged role in the Gukurahundi genocide? Until that reckoning comes, his leadership risks being built on the bones of the past.

Meanwhile, the opposition is in freefall. Nelson Chamisa, once hailed as the heir to Morgan Tsvangirai's defiant legacy, now presides over a movement that's more sermon than structure. The Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) lacks the institutional muscle and grassroots fire that once kept Zanu-PF on edge. Can Chamisa restore the glory days? Not unless he trades charisma for machinery. Tsvangirai's strength was never just charm - it was the architecture of resistance.

Then there's the Matebeleland-focused MRP (Mthwakazi Republic Party), dismissed by many in Mashonaland as fringe. But is that fair - or a symptom of Zimbabwe's entrenched tribal politics? Until Mashonaland voters recognise MRP as a legitimate voice for marginalised regions, national unity will remain a myth. The party's radical stance may alienate some, but its existence is a reminder of unresolved regional grievances.

And what of Saviour Kasukuwere's Gaze movement? Is it a genuine third force or just a distraction - a vanity project for a man exiled from Zanu-PF's inner circle? Gaze lacks ideological clarity, grassroots traction, and a coherent strategy. In a country desperate for alternatives, it feels more like noise than substance.

But the most audacious twist may come from Mnangagwa himself. Professor Jonathan Moyo recently exposed a constitutional loophole that could allow Mnangagwa's term to be extended without a referendum. By distinguishing between "term limits" and "term lengths," Moyo argues that Parliament could legally stretch the current five-year term to seven years via a two-thirds vote - keeping Mnangagwa in power until 2030 without breaching the two-term cap.

This interpretation, backed by a 2021 Constitutional Court ruling, has sparked outrage. Critics like David Coltart insist that any extension involving an incumbent president must trigger two national referenda. But Zanu-PF insiders are already floating the idea of Mnangagwa staying beyond 2028, aligning with the party's "Vision 2030" agenda. The quiet push for a third term - or a longer second - has begun.

Zimbabwe doesn't need more slogans. It needs accountability, structure, and courage. If Chiwenga wants to lead, let him start by confronting the ghosts of Gukurahundi. If Chamisa wants to win, let him rebuild the opposition's spine. And if Mnangagwa wants to stay, let him face the people - not just Parliament.