World Bank ups Zimbabwe's growth forecast to 5%

The World Bank has revised Zimbabwe's economic growth forecast for 2026, projecting a 5% expansion, up from an earlier estimate of 4.6%.

In its latest Global Economic Prospects report released in January 2026, the World Bank also upgraded Zimbabwe's GDP growth for 2025 to 6.6%, exceeding the 6% forecast made in June 2025.

The report attributes the growth surge to a strong recovery in agriculture and substantial investments in key extractive industries, including gold, lithium, iron, and steel, which helped boost industrial production.

"Growth in Zimbabwe sharply increased in 2025, driven by a rebound in agriculture and investments in the extractive industries, which helped lift industrial output," the World Bank noted.

Inflation, a persistent challenge for the country, is expected to decline significantly, potentially reaching single-digit levels by early 2026. This is credited to tighter fiscal and monetary policies, as well as relative exchange rate stability following the introduction of the Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) currency.

The government is also targeting a reduction in the budget deficit to approximately 0.2% of GDP in 2026, reflecting increased fiscal discipline.

Zimbabwe's projected 5% growth aligns with the Treasury's own forecasts, supported by strong performances in agriculture, mining, construction, and retail, alongside favorable global commodity prices. The World Bank maintained its GDP growth forecast for 2027 at 5%.

For the wider region, Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to record steady growth, with projections of 4.3% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027. The growth outlook is underpinned by rising investment and exports, though it depends on stable global conditions and improvements in security in conflict-affected areas.

The report also warns that monetary policies across the region are likely to remain cautious, as governments balance inflation control with efforts to stimulate growth. Fiscal deficits are projected to decline gradually as countries implement consolidation measures, but government interest payments will remain higher than the 2010-2019 average due to less favorable loan terms and lingering post-pandemic debt pressures.