Surging import bill threatens Zimbabwe's economy

Zimbabwe's trade balance narrowed significantly in 2025 thanks to strong export growth, but a rising import bill dominated by fuel and food continues to put pressure on the economy, according to a new report by Buy Zimbabwe.

The 2025 Import & Export Trade Analysis revealed that exports increased from US$6.06 billion in 2021 to US$9.71 billion in 2025, with semi-manufactures, nickel mattes, and tobacco accounting for nearly three-quarters of the export revenue. Meanwhile, imports also rose from US$7.37 billion to US$10.11 billion over the same period, concentrated in energy products such as diesel, petrol, liquefied petroleum gas, and electricity, as well as food staples and fertilisers. Although the trade deficit, which had averaged over US$1.6 billion annually between 2021 and 2024, narrowed dramatically to just US$404 million in 2025, Buy Zimbabwe cautioned that the trend highlights deep structural weaknesses.

The report noted that Zimbabwe's reliance on imported essentials exposes the country to global supply chain disruptions and price shocks. Mining and manufacturing remain central to GDP, but without investment in domestic energy generation, fertiliser production, and downstream value addition in key sectors, the country risks remaining trapped in a cycle where export gains are offset by import dependency.

Buy Zimbabwe emphasised that strengthening local industries is essential for economic resilience. Expanding fertiliser production, renewable energy capacity, and refining infrastructure could reduce reliance on imported inputs. In addition, the development of value-added products in tobacco, precious metals, agro-processing, and manufacturing could retain more revenue locally and stimulate industrial growth.

The report highlighted that scaling up cigarette and tobacco product manufacturing would capture more of the value chain, while developing jewellery and luxury goods industries in the metals sector could retain value domestically. Promoting machinery assembly, auto manufacturing, and steel fabrication could reduce dependence on imported industrial products, while agro-processing facilities such as flour mills, edible oil plants, breweries, bakeries, and textile mills could transform raw exports into higher-value goods.

Buy Zimbabwe concluded that Zimbabwe's trade trends between 2021 and 2025 reflect a dual reality: rising exports driven by value-added products, alongside growing import dependence for energy and food. This dynamic underscores both the vulnerabilities and the opportunities shaping the country's economic trajectory, highlighting the urgent need for local production and value addition as cornerstones of sustainable growth.