Tsvangirai lost elections years ago not just on July 31

The opposition party started losing years ago Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe won a seventh consecutive term of office in last month's national election, defying old age, rumours of ill-health and rifts in his Zanu-PF party. Mugabe, who turns 90 next February, comfortably defeated his much younger rival, Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai (61), the leader of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), by winning 61% of the votes against Tsvangirai's 33%.

The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, which managed the poll, said 3,4m voters had turned out to cast their ballot on July 31 - the largest turnout since Zimbabwe's independence in April 1980. In the days of election campaigning, Mugabe said the election was the "fight of our lives". The remark set the bar for the showdown with the MDC, which had narrowly defeated him in the first round of voting in the 2008 election and wrested the parliamentary majority from his Zanu-PF.

Mugabe's victory over Tsvangirai for the third time in a row has now left uncomfortable questions being asked about the leadership capability of Tsvangirai, his political future and the place of the MDC in Zimbabwe's political discourse. The MDC has refused to recognise Mugabe's win and is preparing to mount a legal challenge to an election it said was blighted by a manipulated voters' roll, a high number of assisted voters and the intimidation of its supporters. MDC spokesman Douglas Mwonzora says the party's lawyers are putting final touches to their legal case.

"We will be lodging the presidential challenge. The MDC is preparing a dossier of all the rigging that took place and we will put it in the public domain to show the people how the election was stolen," says Mwonzora. But few observers are holding their breath over the success of the MDC's court case. Constitutional law expert Lovemore Madhuku points out that given the margin of Mugabe's victory, the chances are "nonexistent" for the courts to rule in Tsvangirai's favour.

Blessing-Miles Tendi, a lecturer at the University of Oxford, says: "The challenge in the coming days is for the MDC to produce hard evidence demonstrating that Zanu-PF's victory is explained by rigging alone."Previous election encounters between Mugabe and Tsvangirai took place in 2002 and 2008. Each outcome was contested between the two longtime rivals.

In retrospect, it appears the formation of the government of national unity in February 2009, which was supposed to share power between Mugabe and Tsvangirai, provided the launchpad for a comeback by Mugabe in this year's election.

In the unity government, Zanu-PF took control of the "power" ministries such as indigenisation, defence, foreign affairs, state security and information. Grudgingly, the MDC was given charge of the "service" ministries: finance, energy development, labour and health. With little real power and little room to manoeuvre, the MDC was constantly trying to gain more concessions from Mugabe and score a modicum of success in the ministries it had been allocated, to show itself to voters as the better choice.

Political commentator Tanonoka Whande says the MDC lost the election over a period of four years and not just on July 31. "Tsvangirai was just too wrapped up in enjoying the trappings of power and forgot to keep in step and in touch with the people. He chose to ignore that he was prime minister not through a vote, but through compromise after the last election had been stolen from him," says Whande. "To remain on top, he forgot to stay under people's guidance. He even had a touch of arrogance towards people, taking them for granted. The people gave him an opportunity several times over and he should now show leadership by stepping aside for the party to bring in a new leader to start mending the damage he caused."

Denford Magora, a political analyst, says Tsvangirai took his support for granted, hence the shock in the party's ranks at the scale of the defeat. "In the end, no matter what accusations of rigging are thrown at Zanu-PF, the truth is that there is no way out for the MDC this time," he says.

Personal blunders by Tsvangirai last year in the form of sex scandals also gave ammunition to Zanu-PF and state media, which attacked his leadership and branded him a womaniser. In one opinion piece published in the state-owned Sunday Mail, Zanu-PF strategist Jonathan Moyo criticised Tsvangirai for having a "shut mind and open zip policy".

Despite his shortcomings as a leader, Tsvangirai squarely takes the blame for having taken part in an electoral process that was flawed from the onset. Key political reforms in the media and security sectors that were meant to have taken place ahead of the polls were absent and political observers say that by taking part in the polls without those in place, Tsvangirai opened himself to being outfoxed by Mugabe. It is widely seen that Mugabe's election plan was set into motion with the unilateral proclamation of the election date, and Tsvangirai was forced to react thereafter to events.

What is worrying now for Tsvangirai is the weight of support that has been lent to Mugabe by the continental powerhouses whose opinion of the poll matters the most. Among these are SA, Tanzania and Kenya. Zanu-PF has rallied support by using its liberation ties to alienate the MDC, which is viewed suspiciously by other ruling liberation parties in the region.

SA's President Jacob Zuma is the Southern African Development Community (SADC) appointed mediator in Zimbabwe's political crisis and he sent a congratulatory message to Mugabe and praised the election for reflecting the "will of the people". Tanzanian president Jakaya Kikwete, who heads the SADC organ on defence and security, said Mugabe's re-election was a clear "testimony of the confidence and trust the people of Zimbabwe bestowed upon him".

So far, Botswana is the only SADC country to break ranks with regional leaders and question the legitimacy of the Zanu-PF win. The position of African countries is at odds with Western nations that have either questioned the poll outcome or urged another election, with the US and UK leading the charge of a flawed vote.

Western groups were not invited to send observer missions to monitor the elections. The West's stance on the election has propped up the general view that it has a vested interest in an MDC win, a position seen as a threat to the dominance of ruling parties in the SADC. The MDC is cutting a lone figure and may struggle to find acceptance in the SADC region, dominated by wartime liberation movement.