Analysts dismiss Zanu-PF split notion

POLITICAL analysts have cautiously dismissed the notion of an imminent split within Zanu-PF likely to be spearheaded by former secretary for administration, Didymus Mutasa, saying President Robert Mugabe is bound to outwit him.

They said although calls for nullification of the December congress held water, the drawback was that they were coming from a frustrated clique that has suddenly found itself without access to State resources, a thing that they were accustomed to since 1980.

They pointed out that Mutasa and former Vice-President Joyce Mujuru squandered a golden opportunity to force a split during the disputed December congress.

Political analyst, Alexander Rusero, said Mugabe is a major factor in the spliting or cementing of Zanu-PF.

"It is dangerous to think that a split is imminent in Zanu-PF, Mugabe, over the years has been brilliant in containing such manoeuvres," he said.

"An opportunity for a split was lost during the congress, where influential top members such as Mujuru were reduced to just mere card-carrying members.

"It was a perfect chance for all members who share Mujuru and Mutasa's view to openly declare a breakaway."

Rusero said although Mutasa's sentiments were genuine, they would struggle to gain acceptance from ordinary Zimbabweans, as they would be viewed with suspicion.

"The problem is that Mutasa and his friends are vocal now after they have fallen from grace," he explained. "They have suddenly become brave and speak against Mugabe after being kicked out, and that's a major problem with Zimbabwean politicians.

"We would have loved them to show such boldness and tenacity while still having influence."

Journalist and political analyst, Methuseli Moyo, concurred with Rusero in that Mutasa might struggle to convince ordinary Zimbabweans on his grievances. However, he said the time was ripe for a split, depended on grassroot support.

"I think Mutasa and his friends regarded Zanu-PF not only as a political party, but an employment vehicle," he said.

"Now that they are no longer enjoying that comfortable life of spending the country's resources, they are now playing victim."

Moyo said while Mutasa might be raising fundamental flaws within Zanu-PF and that their sackings were not grassroots- driven, he might fail to win the sympathy of ordinary citizens.

"This is the same Mutasa who was always quick to leap into Zanu-PF's defence each time it was under attack on human rights violation and political persecution of opposition parties, among a host of accusations," he said.

"How does he (Mutasa) reconcile that? A generality of ordinary Zimbabweans would have difficulties in sympathising with him and his friends, rather they will view this as payback time."

On Monday, Mutasa issued a statement accusing newcomers to the party, whom he described as omafikizolo, of being vultures, who had hijacked the party with the intention of destroying it from within.

He threatened to take the party to court over the congress, describing himself as the bona fide secretary for administration.

Mutasa has been the most vocal of fired members and has written to Sadc to have a look at the congress procedures.

On the possibility of a split, Moyo said: "This is the right moment for it to happen. In 2008, the situation was very fluid and
(Simba)Makoni miscalculated."

However, Rusero warned that Mutasa risked falling into Makoni's "political pit".

"Remember what befell Makoni when he formed Mavambo?

"His backers within Zanu-PF who were expected to jump ship never did that and he became a political loner," he said.