Opinion / Columnist
The polls got it right
03 Aug 2018 at 11:30hrs | Views
In general, the last few years have not been great for pollsters. They have been misread all over the world. In America they correctly predicted that Hilary would win the popular vote, but failed in their analysis that Trump would win the electoral college. They knew Brexit would be close, but failed to predict that UK would vote to leave.
However, hats off to all the pollsters who correctly predicted a ZANU landslide. As a statistician and political geek, I went through all of these polls with a fine toothcomb. It was clear that ED was going to win big, especially in the traditional rural areas. ED had been given a great amount of credit by the voter in all focus groups. He was seen as a man of action, a man who could make real change, and above all a leader. In fact all the focus group results we saw showed one word stood up above them all, 'LEADERSHIP'. While the final Afrobarometer polls suggested things may be tighter than all the other polls, there was not one poll that suggested Nelson Chamisa ever had a chance.
So as I stayed up to watch all the parliamentary results come in (with my excel spreadsheet at the ready) I went back to look at all the polls over the last 6 months. It turns out that they were right! Each and every collection of data, from phone polls to broader polls in the field predicted a large ED victory.
As the final results came in, we saw that the presidential results were almost identical to the final afrobarometer poll. Hats off to them!
Finally, these elections are behind us. International observers are giving it their okay. And for once, all the polls got it right.
Mike, Harare
However, hats off to all the pollsters who correctly predicted a ZANU landslide. As a statistician and political geek, I went through all of these polls with a fine toothcomb. It was clear that ED was going to win big, especially in the traditional rural areas. ED had been given a great amount of credit by the voter in all focus groups. He was seen as a man of action, a man who could make real change, and above all a leader. In fact all the focus group results we saw showed one word stood up above them all, 'LEADERSHIP'. While the final Afrobarometer polls suggested things may be tighter than all the other polls, there was not one poll that suggested Nelson Chamisa ever had a chance.
So as I stayed up to watch all the parliamentary results come in (with my excel spreadsheet at the ready) I went back to look at all the polls over the last 6 months. It turns out that they were right! Each and every collection of data, from phone polls to broader polls in the field predicted a large ED victory.
As the final results came in, we saw that the presidential results were almost identical to the final afrobarometer poll. Hats off to them!
Finally, these elections are behind us. International observers are giving it their okay. And for once, all the polls got it right.
Mike, Harare
Source - Mike Tawanda
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