Honeymoon over for Zambian leader

Almost six months after the high expectations created by his historic landslide victory over Edgar Lungu and his promises of fundamental reform, Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema's halo has begun slipping slightly.

‘HH', as he is widely dubbed, secured the top job on his sixth attempt, inspiring embattled democrats across Africa. But governing is proving even more difficult than ousting a deeply entrenched incumbent.

Lungu bequeathed a mountain of problems to his successor, including a national debt of US$14,71-billion, rocketing inflation and a mining sector crippled by toxic relations with private mining companies. He also left rampant corruption and cronyism in the civil service and an authoritarian ethos in which opposition voices were largely suppressed.

Mr Hichilema has certainly addressed the last problem, as Neo Simutanyi, Head of the Centre for Policy Dialogue in Lusaka, told ISS Today. The president engaged the public more, including through social media, responding to its concerns and throwing open the political space. HH's firing of the security chiefs who presided over Lungu's oppressive political system was also praised.

Simutanyi said even Lungu's Patriotic Front (PF) had welcomed two ‘quite radical' measures. One was the dramatic increase in the Constituency Development Fund, which decentralises much government development spending, from 1.6 million kwacha to 25.7 million kwacha per constituency. The second was Mr Hichilema's announcement that the government would employ 30 000 new teachers and 11 200 new health workers.

Ringisai Chikohomero, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, noted on a recent trip to Zambia that the president had also been applauded for providing more social spending, free education in public schools and support for small businesses and agriculture.

Mr Hichilema' s handling of corruption has received more mixed reviews. Simutanyi said his amnesty offer to officials who returned stolen money was impractical and allowed them to duck responsibility. When it comes to public service reform, HH is being criticised for not getting rid of corrupt and incompetent Lungu appointees and for hiring only his loyalists or officials from his stronghold regions.

Ultimately, though, it will probably be his efforts to repair the shattered economy he inherited that will determine how he's judged.

Mr Hichilema has been widely praised for appointing a strong economic team dedicated to better fiscal and monetary discipline. One of the major economic challenges is sorting out the mess in the mining sector, mainly copper, which is critical to Zambia's recovery and prosperity. Historian and political commentator of Cape Town and Zambia universities, Sishuwa Sishuwa, has praised the new government's better mechanism for collecting mining revenues, which was controversial and unpredictable under Lungu.

However, he noted that Mr Hichilema hadn't yet tackled the nub of the problem - what to do about ownership of the Glencore-operated Mopani Copper Mines (which Lungu's government took over) and Lungu's liquidation of the Vedanta-owned Konkola mines. Will HH return these mines to their previous owners or seek new investors?

This decision goes to the heart of economic policy and even ideology. HH is above all a businessman - and so the international investment community looks forward to his bringing in free-market economic principles. But mining companies aren't universally popular in Zambia, so he mustn't seem to be bending over backwards to please foreign interests.

The critical debt question remains open too. Last December the government negotiated a provisional $1.4-billion loan from the International Monetary Fund. This could help pay for the social services increases in the budget and the huge debt.

The loan is conditional though. Among others, it depends on the government maintaining fiscal discipline and negotiating some debt relief under the G20's Common Framework agreed in 2020 to help highly indebted countries like Zambia out of the Covid-19-induced financial crisis.

Chikohomero says Mr Hichilema has yet to inject new life into the economy, though it's still early days. He notes concerns about how to pay for the vast social spending increases while reducing taxes.

"His critics worry that he is relying more and more on the IMF. That would just transfer debt payments from the Chinese to the Bretton Woods institutions. That would be trying to borrow from Peter to pay Paul."

Simutanyi also pointed out that HH hasn't been transparent about all the loan conditions. For example, will it mean reducing subsidies on essentials like fuel, which would push up their prices?