What is the way forward for Tsvangirai?

Unless Morgan Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change adopts a nationalistic and pan-Africanist outlook, it will struggle to gain the sympathy and support of key regional players among political parties and governments. MDC will need to loosen its close ties with the West, at least in the public eye, argues SIMUKAI TINHU.

The brushing aside by the AU and SADC of MDC concerns with the recent elections in Zimbabwe and the African political class' quick endorsement of Zanu-PF win as the winner is not a coincidence. Below the surface, the political class in most African countries has never been comfortable with MDC's perceived reflexive dependence on the West, especially Britain.And so Zimbabwe's hotly contested elections have come and gone and the country's patriarch, Robert Mugabe, has been declared the winner. His party, Zanu-PF, also trounced its rivals - capturing more than two thirds of the parliamentary seats and paving the way for the octogenarian leader and his revolutionary party to walk all over the new constitution (which they never really liked). But more importantly, and indeed more worryingly, this win has created a dilemma for the opposition, which now has a few options on the table to ensure its own survival.The first option is for the MDC to challenge the electoral outcome via the courts.

However, there is reason to be cautious when it comes to this option. Not only do Zimbabwe's courts have a record of partisan decisions, with most of the judges having been appointed by Mugabe and benefitting from Zanu-PF patronage networks. Historically, few significant rulings have been made in favour of the MDC. Some have argued that even if the courts were independent, the margin that Tsvangirai was beaten by Mugabe by, 61 percent - 35 percent, is too wide to contest. Tsvangirai's party will have to produce considerable credible evidence to convince the courts that the election was stolen. Indeed, no one, including senior MDC officials, is expecting this move to produce anything of substance.The second option is to hope that MDC supporters will initiate some kind of political protest, as in Egypt, in an attempt to force Mugabe to step down. This is unlikely considering the heavy-handedness with which Zimbabwe's security forces have handled previous protests. This is also risky because if Mugabe's party officials perceive these protests as having been incited by the MDC leadership, they might use this as an excuse to incarcerate them. In the meantime, there is little evidence of planning for a protest, with people on the streets generally going about their business as usual.

The third option is to appeal to the regional bodies of Southern African Development Community (SADC), and the African Union (AU) with the hope that they might pressure Mugabe to seriously consider a re-run of the election.Tsvangirai's party is in the process of compiling a dossier to be sent to these regional bodies. However, there are also difficulties with this move. As it is, SADC and the AU have endorsed the electoral outcome and at the weekend, the South African president Jacob Zuma, who has been critical of Mugabe until recently, has sent a congratulatory message to him for his victory. Other African nations have since followed suit, with the exception of Botswana. Therefore, in so far as SADC, the AU and other African nations, the Zimbabwe problem is solved.

The MDC might yet call on the West to put pressure on Zanu-PF. But, with Mugabe likely to be out of the way before the end of his term this time around, the West's relationship with Zimbabwe is likely to be driven more by realpolitik than concerns for human rights or justice. In addition, the EU and the US in particular, might not want to be seen to be alienating the AU and SADC who had observer missions in Zimbabwe during the elections. Britain, the US and Germany might have expressed concerns on how the elections were conducted, but these will definitely fall on deaf ears. At any rate, such rhetoric is likely to die down as time progresses.

Fourth, the MDC has stated that they will not participate in national institutions. For example, MDC winners in this election might not take up their seats in Parliament and the Senate and in local councils. But this approach is problematic on two levels. First, it has the potential to split the party as those members who won might decide to take up their positions. Indeed, there are reports in local newspapers that Mugabe is attempting to split the opposition by luring MDC members who won parliamentary seats to join the new government. Secondly, Mugabe's party will certainly go ahead and run the country without the MDC. After all, Zanu-PF has always wanted a one-party state and could seize the opportunity to seriously consider governing without the opposition.

Finally, the MDC must seriously consider one immediate interest - ensuring that it survives this defeat. The history of electoral politics in Zimbabwe suggests that a heavy defeat at the ballot box is a good indicator of what is likely to happen to the losing opposition party. To-date, this has been the heaviest defeat that the MDC has suffered and may well be its last as all political parties that have faced heavy electoral defeat have disappeared immediately after the election.

In addition, it is an open secret that President Mugabe's party is very keen on crowding out other parties from Zimbabwe's political space. Especially with the resignation or death of its patriarch, Zanu-PF is conscious that its political fortunes are likely to decline. In order to strengthen its hegemonic status on Zimbabwe's political scene, it will attempt to pursue the MDC with the resolve and ruthlessness it used to win this election.
Indeed, by winning a majority in parliament, the machinery has already been set in motion to destroy Tsvangirai's party. A series of laws to restrict the movement and growth of the MDC (and other opposition groups) is likely to be passed in the next five years.

Leadership renewal
It goes without saying that this last is the most important and most realistic option. The test of the MDC's true strength will be whether it is able to march on without its main ideologue and founder, Morgan Tsvangirai. Indeed, since its formation, Tsvangirai's name has been synonymous with the MDC and his courage in the face of serious political challenges must never be underestimated. Tsvangirai himself has already indicated that he has no intention of stepping down any time soon. Indeed, he has told a press conference in Harare that he has the full backing of his party. His supporters in the party have also argued that he needs to finish the job that he started.

However, for the good of the party, Tsvangirai needs to step down because resorting to moral arguments to support his continued candidature will only worsen the situation. If he remains as MDC leader, by the time Zimbabwe goes to the next elections, the former trade unionist would have served 20 years as head of a party whose constitution stipulates a maximum of two five-year terms. When he first joined politics, his aim was to dislodge the authoritarian regime of Zanu-PF. Fourteen years later, he is attempting to amend the MDC constitution for a second time in order to remain at the head of the party, thus risking his moral authority to ask Zanu-PF and Mugabe to step down and the support of Western backers.

Tendai Biti versus Nelson Chamisa
The two potential successors to Tsvangirai are Tendai Biti, the all powerful Secretary General of the party, and Nelson Chamisa, the youthful Organising Secretary who is aligned to Tsvangirai's faction. But the ascension of Biti would be problematic. While there is no doubting his courage, he lacks the tactical finesse required of a high level statesman and at times appears erratic.For example, following the SADC extraordinary summit on Zimbabwe last month, he went his Facebook page to announce, rather prematurely, the outcome of the summit and was subsequently found to have been inaccurate. Such an approach is embarrassing and does not instill much confidence in Biti's capacity to behave like a statesman.Strong and visionary leadership is an indispensable requirement for the MDC's future. Nelson Chamisa appears to have these qualities.

He is not always the most imaginative, but the youthful politician is gutsy (those who know him from his student politics days can attest to this).Chamisa would have been a more complete politician and realist that the MDC needs at the helm had it not been for his occasional idealism shaped by his addiction to neoliberal views and his disturbingly constant reference to the Bible at political rallies. A born again Christian, his religious views will compromise his political clarity, a necessary tool to succeed in Zimbabwe's brute political scene. But these are the things that can be worked on as he matures further.

Nationalism and pan-Africanism
Unless the MDC adopts a nationalistic and pan-Africanist outlook, it will struggle to gain the sympathy and support of key regional players among political parties and governments. The party will need to loosen its close ties with the West, at least in the public eye.The brushing aside by the AU and SADC of MDC's concerns with these elections and the quick endorsement of Zanu-PF as the winner by the African political class is no coincidence.Indeed, the MDC has been unable to see the game that SADC and South Africa have been playing with it: On one hand, feigning solidarity with their requests by having endless and fruitless summits on Zimbabwe; and pulling the rug from under MDC's feet at the 11th hour when the SADC and South Africa refused a re-run of 2008 and then forcing MDC into a coalition with Zanu-PF as a junior partner despite it having won the elections, on the other.

Indeed, the endorsement of the recent elections has nothing to do with its credibility; it is a subtle quid pro quo with Zanu-PF for standing out against the West, something that most African nations cannot do.Thus the MDC needs to work on its relationship with African states who are frustrated by what they perceive as the MDC's cosy relationship with the West. In other words, a major realignment in the eyes of the public could put the MDC on an ideologically acceptable footing with its neighbours and obtain a SADC and AU alliance with the party.Adopting a nationalist agenda will also draw some of Zanu-PF's soft supporters and even stalwarts and their patronage networks, votes and supporters.

Undermining Zanu-PF cohesion
No vision for unseating Zanu-PF will stand without attempting to undermine its cohesion. To outsiders, the revolutionary party may appear to be in robust shape. But from inside it is confused, almost dazed, and is currently suffering from the frequent outbursts of recrimination between the Emmerson Mnangagwa and Joyce Mujuru faction. While President Mugabe has skillfully maintained an uneasy balance between the two, his resignation is likely to see the party weaken further.Undermining ZANU - PF cohesion can be achieved through a multipronged approach. For example, by stoking old rivalries between the two factions or promising better patronage benefits than what ZANU - PF can offer to either of the factions. Undermining ZANU - PF will not only bring some of the most hardened men on Zimbabwe's political scene, but also patronage networks and votes.

Brilliant political strategists
There is no doubt that ZANU - PF has some of the most brilliant minds on the nation's political scene. On the other hand, though dedicated and brave, the MDC cannot boast the same resources. It therefore needs to recruit ruthless politicians who surpass or at least match the brilliance of Zanu-PF strategists; those who can pull off the machinations required to get into power.

Ten-year strategy
Defeating Zanu-PF is not going to be the result of an overnight strategy. Planning a long-term strategy suits the opposition better. The MDC's strategic thinking should begin with a clear view of the challenge posed by Zanu-PF to its very existence. The first five years should focus entirely on survival because there is no doubt that Zanu-PF will attempt to destroy the MDC as a viable opposition party while other parties attempt to dislodge it as the main anchor of Zimbabwe's opposition politics.

A 10-year strategy will allow a young crop of politicians to mature. In addition, Zanu-PF is heavily entrenched in Zimbabwean society - the judiciary, the security establishment and the public service - and dislodging it is not an electoral issue but an institutional one that requires a long-term strategy. Lastly, in order to gain the support and trust of other African nations, the MDC is going to require more time. If the MDC does not think in these terms, it will soon be sent packing by the vagaries of Zimbabwean politics.

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SIMUKAI TINHU is a political analyst based in London.