Speculation rife as Zimbabwe records spike in cases of rare flu

Genomic sequencing is needed to avoid speculation of a new variant following a spike in rare flu cases in Zimbabwe, health experts have said.

This comes as Zimbabwe is recording an increase in new infections following the discovery of the new variant, Omicron. For the last two weeks, the country has been averaging 4 580 new Covid-19 infections daily.

In December 2020, South Africa detected the Beta variant and in May 2021 the Delta variant as a result of robust genomic surveillance.

Genomic sequencing can be defined as an analysis of a virus' genetic make-up in a laboratory to identify new variants.

Speaking during a science cafe for media practitioners from Eastern and Southern Africa last week, World Health Organisation (WHO) country representative to Zimbabwe Dr Alex Gasasira said it was important for countries to invest in research and testing to ensure a transparent reflection of the Covid-19 fight as well as avoid speculation on the increase in rare flu cases in the country.

Dr Gasasira said the genetic sequencing rate in Zimbabwe was still low making it difficult to trace where the country's infections could be coming from.

"We know that countries such as South Africa, Mozambique, Lesotho, Zimbabwe and Eswatini are seeing large increases in the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases.

We may all know that for example, in Zimbabwe now, last week, we recorded 28 000 new cases. This is the highest number of cases reported in a single week's time since the outbreak of the pandemic.

The previous highest number of cases in one week was around 15 000 and this was mid-July this year at the height of the third wave," said Dr Gasasira.

He said he could not rule out that the flu outbreak being recorded across the country could infact be a new variant.

"Let us not speculate but should instead work on building capacity in genomic sequencing and training our scientists.

We must encourage our scientists to continue studying because if we do not have evidence, we are moving blind. If we cannot sequence more samples, we may have other new variants we don"t know.

It is very possible that we may have a Zimbabwean variant because variants are discovered every day," said Dr Gasasira. He said genomic sequencing was central to the Covid-19 response.

"In Zimbabwe we are not sequencing as much as we expect. The Government, Ministry of Health and Child Care and partners are doing their best but we are not sequencing a large number of samples.

This means we can only postulate that the very rapid increase in cases is because of the new variant. We can't reach a firm conclusion as to what proportion of Omicron, Delta and other variants of interest we still have because the number of samples that have been processed to date is very small," said Dr Gasasira.

He said multiple studies were ongoing globally to understand the characteristics of the Omicron variant more scientifically and systematically.

The Omicron variant is a highly mutated variant of Covid-19 whose potency and impact is feared could evade vaccine-induced immunity.

The Omicron variant has been detected in many countries globally and in all continents except for Antarctica.

Dr Gasasira said samples had been taken across the country to labs that are able to do genetic sequencing.

Dr Bathandwa Ncube, a local family health practitioner, said the value of genomic sequencing for public health response goes beyond just knowing when to go into lockdown.

"It can help countries prepare for potential surges and take important steps such as increasing oxygen supply, opening more hospital beds or increasing testing because these are variants that are more transmissible," said Dr Ncube.