News / National
Zanu-PF's popularity soars ahead of 2023 polls?
21 Apr 2022 at 11:31hrs | Views
A PRO-OPPOSITION research entity, the Zimbabwe Democracy Institute (ZDI), has said the recent by-elections have shown that the revolutionary Zanu-PF party is on a strong resurgent trajectory as it managed to grow its support base by larger margins than its opponents fronted by CCC.
In a report titled "Deterrent of the Zambian Precedent in Zimbabwe," the ZDI said the opposition CCC faces a possible "complete knock-out" in Zanu-PF strongholds if the ruling party maintains its growth trend in next year's harmonised elections.
"Zanu-PF increased from the 2018 baseline of 65 percent to 75 percent of the total votes cast in 2022, showing that Zanu-PF is increasing it's performance and popularity in it's strongholds.
"The proportion with which Zanu-PF and CCC gained in the Zanu-PF strongholds indicate that Zanu-PF support is growing faster than that of CCC in the same region.
"Zanu-PF's winning margin increased by an additional six percent in its strongholds," reads part of the report.
It further said in 2018, MDC-A fell short against Zanu-PF with 47 percent whereas in 2022, it fell short with 53 percent in the same region.
"Read together, these statistics show that if Zanu-PF manages to maintain this growth trend, it will completely knock-out the opposition from it's strongholds."
In terms of overall performance, the ZDI reports said findings show that CCC's performance increased by 30 percent of the 2018 vote compared to Zanu-PF's 80 percent increase in opposition stronghold constituencies.
Zanu-PF needed 33 percent +1 to win in opposition strongholds in 2018, whereas in 2022, it only needed 28 percent +1 to win in the same area.
The ruling party managed to reduce the margin of loss in opposition areas by five percent. On the other hand, the opposition CCC dropped 51 percent of the 2018 votes given to MDC-A whereas Zanu-PF dropped 38 percent of the 2018 vote in the same area.
This contrasts with a 61 percent drop in total votes by CCC and a 34 percent drop in total votes by Zanu-PF in opposition strongholds.
In Harare, a traditional opposition stronghold, ZANU-PF had a superior performance compared to CCC as it improved to 32 percent compared to 24 percent in 2018. CCC improved by a mere five percent from 59 percent in 2018 to 64 percent in 2022.
"Comparatively, CCC total votes declined with higher proportion than Zanu-PF in Harare province," said the report.
It was the same situation in the Midlands province where Zanu-PF improved much better by 12 percent from 35 percent in 2018 to 47 percent in 2022, whereas CCC improved by five percent from 46 percent in 2018 to 51 percent in 2022.
The statistics indicate that Zanu-PF is closing the opposition's winning margin in the Midlands province.
CCC had a marginal competitive edge over Zanu-PF in Bulawayo where it improved by 18 percent from 43 percent in 2018 to 61 percent in 2022 while Zanu-PF improved by nine percent from 23 percent in 2018 to 32 percent in 2022.
Zanu-PF improved by a greater proportion than CCC in Mashonaland East as it gained an additional 13 percent from 53 percent in 2018 to 66 percent in 2022. CCC only improved by three percent from 29 percent in 2018 to 32 percent in 2022. This means Zanu-PF is widening its winning margin in this province.
In Manicaland, CCC had a subdued performance in the by-elections as shown by a two percent decrease (61 percent in 2018 to 59 percent in 2022) whereas Zanu-PF improved its performance by nine percent from 29 percent in 2018 to 38 percent in 2022.
The results also show that the ruling party is decreasing the opposition's winning margin.
CCC suffered a 61 percent decrease from the previous MDC-A votes as compared to Zanu-PF's 46 percent decrease from 2018 votes in the same areas.
Zanu-PF improved its performance from the 2018 elections in Matabeleland North as shown by a 10 percent increase from 37 percent in 2018 to 47 percent in 2022.
On the other hand, CCC remained static at 48 percent between 2018 and 2022. The winning margin of the opposition in the province is decreasing.
Although poor voter turnout affected all the contesting parties in Matabeleland North, CCC was affected the most as shown by a 38 percent decline from the previous MDC-A total votes in 2018. In the same province, Zanu-PF was least affected as indicated by a 21 percent decrease from its previous total votes.
In Masvingo, CCC recorded a decrease of 2 percent overally (15 percent in 2018 to 13 percent in 2022) as compared to Zanu-PF's improved performance of an additional 7 percent from its previous election score (78 percent in 2018 to 85 percent in 2022).
Zanu-PF is increasing its winning margin in this province. Poor voter turn-out in Masvingo province affected CCC more than Zanu-PF. For CCC, there was a 57 percent decline in total votes whereas Zanu-PF had a 48 percent decline in total votes.
Overally, CCC has no chance of winning the 2023 harmonised elections given the momentum shown by the ruling Zanu-PF in mobilising its supporters. The ZDI report also shows that Zanu-PF is more popular among a larger percentage of the country's voters.
Commenting on the research findings, Zanu-PF director of information and publicity, Tafadzwa Mugwadi, said the revolutionary party has consistently made it clear that the just-ended by-elections exposed the glaring incapacities of the opposition notwithstanding the number of times they change their names.
"The strength of Zanu-PF and its capacity to mobilise on the basis of driving the People's Revolutionary Programme is beyond the capacity of the factitious opposition to match. Be that as it may, what the Zimbabwe Democracy Institute gathered in its research is not anything new to us, but it is crucial and very timely as a big vote of confidence on Zanu-PF ahead of the 2023 watershed elections.
"It's an indictment of the opposition, that it's false flag narrative driven by faked victim-hood, pro-sanctions disposition and failure to give meaning to their victory in urban areas have separated them from the people.
"A Zanu-PF victory in 2023 has been made more certain by the rejection of the opposition in urban areas which have stood as its fish pond since 2000. The writing is on the wall.
"President ED Mnangagwa's people-centred policies and productive political manuals have made our job easier in 2023," said Mugwadi.
CCC spokesperson, Fadzayi Mahere, requested questions to be sent to her WhatsApp number. However, despite several inquiries, she had not responded to the issues raised in the report by the time of going to press last night.
In a report titled "Deterrent of the Zambian Precedent in Zimbabwe," the ZDI said the opposition CCC faces a possible "complete knock-out" in Zanu-PF strongholds if the ruling party maintains its growth trend in next year's harmonised elections.
"Zanu-PF increased from the 2018 baseline of 65 percent to 75 percent of the total votes cast in 2022, showing that Zanu-PF is increasing it's performance and popularity in it's strongholds.
"The proportion with which Zanu-PF and CCC gained in the Zanu-PF strongholds indicate that Zanu-PF support is growing faster than that of CCC in the same region.
"Zanu-PF's winning margin increased by an additional six percent in its strongholds," reads part of the report.
It further said in 2018, MDC-A fell short against Zanu-PF with 47 percent whereas in 2022, it fell short with 53 percent in the same region.
"Read together, these statistics show that if Zanu-PF manages to maintain this growth trend, it will completely knock-out the opposition from it's strongholds."
In terms of overall performance, the ZDI reports said findings show that CCC's performance increased by 30 percent of the 2018 vote compared to Zanu-PF's 80 percent increase in opposition stronghold constituencies.
Zanu-PF needed 33 percent +1 to win in opposition strongholds in 2018, whereas in 2022, it only needed 28 percent +1 to win in the same area.
The ruling party managed to reduce the margin of loss in opposition areas by five percent. On the other hand, the opposition CCC dropped 51 percent of the 2018 votes given to MDC-A whereas Zanu-PF dropped 38 percent of the 2018 vote in the same area.
This contrasts with a 61 percent drop in total votes by CCC and a 34 percent drop in total votes by Zanu-PF in opposition strongholds.
In Harare, a traditional opposition stronghold, ZANU-PF had a superior performance compared to CCC as it improved to 32 percent compared to 24 percent in 2018. CCC improved by a mere five percent from 59 percent in 2018 to 64 percent in 2022.
"Comparatively, CCC total votes declined with higher proportion than Zanu-PF in Harare province," said the report.
It was the same situation in the Midlands province where Zanu-PF improved much better by 12 percent from 35 percent in 2018 to 47 percent in 2022, whereas CCC improved by five percent from 46 percent in 2018 to 51 percent in 2022.
The statistics indicate that Zanu-PF is closing the opposition's winning margin in the Midlands province.
CCC had a marginal competitive edge over Zanu-PF in Bulawayo where it improved by 18 percent from 43 percent in 2018 to 61 percent in 2022 while Zanu-PF improved by nine percent from 23 percent in 2018 to 32 percent in 2022.
Zanu-PF improved by a greater proportion than CCC in Mashonaland East as it gained an additional 13 percent from 53 percent in 2018 to 66 percent in 2022. CCC only improved by three percent from 29 percent in 2018 to 32 percent in 2022. This means Zanu-PF is widening its winning margin in this province.
In Manicaland, CCC had a subdued performance in the by-elections as shown by a two percent decrease (61 percent in 2018 to 59 percent in 2022) whereas Zanu-PF improved its performance by nine percent from 29 percent in 2018 to 38 percent in 2022.
The results also show that the ruling party is decreasing the opposition's winning margin.
CCC suffered a 61 percent decrease from the previous MDC-A votes as compared to Zanu-PF's 46 percent decrease from 2018 votes in the same areas.
Zanu-PF improved its performance from the 2018 elections in Matabeleland North as shown by a 10 percent increase from 37 percent in 2018 to 47 percent in 2022.
On the other hand, CCC remained static at 48 percent between 2018 and 2022. The winning margin of the opposition in the province is decreasing.
Although poor voter turnout affected all the contesting parties in Matabeleland North, CCC was affected the most as shown by a 38 percent decline from the previous MDC-A total votes in 2018. In the same province, Zanu-PF was least affected as indicated by a 21 percent decrease from its previous total votes.
In Masvingo, CCC recorded a decrease of 2 percent overally (15 percent in 2018 to 13 percent in 2022) as compared to Zanu-PF's improved performance of an additional 7 percent from its previous election score (78 percent in 2018 to 85 percent in 2022).
Zanu-PF is increasing its winning margin in this province. Poor voter turn-out in Masvingo province affected CCC more than Zanu-PF. For CCC, there was a 57 percent decline in total votes whereas Zanu-PF had a 48 percent decline in total votes.
Overally, CCC has no chance of winning the 2023 harmonised elections given the momentum shown by the ruling Zanu-PF in mobilising its supporters. The ZDI report also shows that Zanu-PF is more popular among a larger percentage of the country's voters.
Commenting on the research findings, Zanu-PF director of information and publicity, Tafadzwa Mugwadi, said the revolutionary party has consistently made it clear that the just-ended by-elections exposed the glaring incapacities of the opposition notwithstanding the number of times they change their names.
"The strength of Zanu-PF and its capacity to mobilise on the basis of driving the People's Revolutionary Programme is beyond the capacity of the factitious opposition to match. Be that as it may, what the Zimbabwe Democracy Institute gathered in its research is not anything new to us, but it is crucial and very timely as a big vote of confidence on Zanu-PF ahead of the 2023 watershed elections.
"It's an indictment of the opposition, that it's false flag narrative driven by faked victim-hood, pro-sanctions disposition and failure to give meaning to their victory in urban areas have separated them from the people.
"A Zanu-PF victory in 2023 has been made more certain by the rejection of the opposition in urban areas which have stood as its fish pond since 2000. The writing is on the wall.
"President ED Mnangagwa's people-centred policies and productive political manuals have made our job easier in 2023," said Mugwadi.
CCC spokesperson, Fadzayi Mahere, requested questions to be sent to her WhatsApp number. However, despite several inquiries, she had not responded to the issues raised in the report by the time of going to press last night.
Source - the herald
