Mzembi returns with a whimper, not a bang

After years of silence and self-imposed exile, former cabinet minister Walter Mzembi has quietly returned to Zimbabwe - a development that has generated more speculation than substance in the political arena. Once a prominent figure in Robert Mugabe's administration, Mzembi's re-emergence has prompted murmurs of intrigue within Zanu PF circles, but a closer inspection reveals little political heft behind his comeback.

His return, however, is far from the political earthquake some eager observers anticipated. Unlike the noisy declarations and promises of seismic change made by war veteran Blessed Geza earlier this year - now thoroughly exposed as hollow - Mzembi's re-entry onto the political stage is more a survival manoeuvre than a strategic masterstroke.

Mzembi, who served as Tourism and Foreign Affairs Minister under Mugabe, had been in exile in South Africa, Eswatini, and most recently Zambia following the 2017 military-assisted transition. Upon his return, he was promptly brought before the courts on long-standing corruption charges dating back to 2018. Though the Zimbabwe Anti-Corruption Commission (Zacc) acted swiftly, there is widespread speculation that this could end in yet another episode of Zimbabwe's notorious "catch-and-release" cycle that has long shielded political elites.

Analysts and insiders suggest Mzembi's return is not the result of some grand reconciliation effort between President Emmerson Mnangagwa's administration and remnants of the G40 faction. Instead, it is more plausibly a personal move by a political actor long detached from any organised base or influential network. Despite some chatter about a behind-the-scenes deal, the facts do not support the theory of a coordinated effort to integrate former G40 allies into Mnangagwa's fold.

Mzembi, respected during his time in tourism for administrative competence, lacks the political gravitas of figures like Jonathan Moyo or Saviour Kasukuwere - the fabled "passenger 34" whose own political re-entry ahead of the 2023 election turned out to be all smoke and no fire. Unlike Kasukuwere, Mzembi commands no constituency, offers no electoral base, and contributes little strategic value to either faction within the ruling party.

For Zanu PF, power dynamics continue to revolve around succession and the much-discussed 2030 campaign. President Mnangagwa's reported intention to extend his rule beyond the constitutionally mandated two terms has triggered intense debate and factional recalibration. Yet, as observers note, the 2030 agenda is not about simply extending Mnangagwa's rule by two more years; rather, it is a stepping stone toward a broader constitutional amendment, possibly removing term limits or extending them - much like Rwanda's seven-year model.

While rumours have circulated about military unease with these ambitions, Mnangagwa has employed what analysts describe as a "Mobutu strategy," systematically neutralising security-sector dissent through a blend of incentives, reassignments, and sidelining. The internal opposition that might once have posed a threat to such ambitions has been severely weakened, if not outright dissolved.

In that context, Mzembi's return is neither threatening nor revolutionary. It is more a retreat from political exile than a launchpad for political resurgence. If anything, it reaffirms a long-standing truth in Zanu PF politics: the further one strays from the patronage ecosystem, the colder and more perilous the political wilderness becomes.

As Mnangagwa pushes forward with constitutional reforms, likely to materialise in the coming years, the political centre continues to consolidate around his ambitions. Those on the periphery - like Mzembi - either submit to that centre or remain politically irrelevant.

For ordinary Zimbabweans, meanwhile, the reappearance of a once-prominent politician offers no respite from deepening economic hardship, runaway inflation, and social unrest. Mzembi's return may fill the front pages, but it changes little for a country gripped by political stagnation and a worsening quality of life.

As always in Zimbabwean politics, the noise often overshadows the reality. In this case, the noise is faint - and the reality remains unchanged.