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Zanu-PF risks implosion
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Political analyst Eldred Masunungure has warned that the ruling Zanu-PF party is teetering on the brink of internal collapse as tensions between President Emmerson Mnangagwa and his deputy Constantino Chiwenga continue to escalate.
Speaking to NewZimbabwe, Masunungure said the deepening divisions within the party - laid bare at the ongoing Zanu-PF National People's Conference in Mutare - could lead to a serious implosion if not managed carefully.
"The long and short of it is that the Zanu-PF pot is ‘overboiling,' and if not managed well, it may very well explode," Masunungure cautioned. "It is therefore incumbent upon the National People's Conference managers to sharpen their conflict resolution skills to abate a dangerous fallout."
The conference, which is expected to deliberate on Zimbabwe's ailing economy, corruption, and the 2030 development agenda, has been overshadowed by a bitter succession battle between Mnangagwa and Chiwenga.
According to party insiders, the tension intensified following a Politburo meeting on Tuesday, where Chiwenga reportedly demanded action on a corruption dossier he submitted to the President in September. The dossier accused prominent businessmen - Wicknell Chivayo, Kudakwashe Tagwirei, and Pedzai "Scott" Sakupwanya - of looting millions from state coffers under the protection of powerful political figures.
Mnangagwa's allies swiftly retaliated, with Justice Minister Ziyambi Ziyambi, who also serves as the party's legal affairs secretary, accusing Chiwenga of treason. Party spokesperson Christopher Mutsvangwa also lashed out at the Vice President, saying he was "turning the presidium into a kangaroo court."
Masunungure said the outcome of the Zanu-PF power struggle will depend on "who holds the strategic cards" within the party's hierarchy.
"The critical factor depends on who is capable of outmanoeuvring the other or, to use Donald Trump's language, ‘who has the cards?' From the vantage point of an outsider looking in, it appears the incumbent Mnangagwa has most of the strategic cards, courtesy of the power of incumbency, both in the party and the state," he said.
He noted that Chiwenga's once-formidable military support base has "significantly eroded" and can no longer be relied upon to engineer another "military-assisted transition" like the one that toppled the late Robert Mugabe in 2017.
Recent internal reshuffles have further deepened speculation of a systematic purge of Chiwenga's allies. Mnangagwa recently removed Obert Mpofu from his influential role as Secretary General, reassigning him to the ICT department, and replaced him with Jacob Mudenda. Days later, Zanu-PF Director General Ezekiel Zabanyana was dismissed - a move widely seen as an attempt to weaken Chiwenga's factional network.
Masunungure warned that the factional conflict could spill beyond party structures and destabilise the state itself.
"The fallout will most probably infect the state, its key organs and processes. More broadly, it will further deepen and widen the already worrying societal polarisation," he said.
Zanu-PF's elective congress in 2027 is expected to be the stage for resolving the succession issue. However, analysts say the resolutions adopted at the Mutare conference could shape the balance of power leading up to that crucial event - and determine whether the ruling party emerges united or fractured.
Speaking to NewZimbabwe, Masunungure said the deepening divisions within the party - laid bare at the ongoing Zanu-PF National People's Conference in Mutare - could lead to a serious implosion if not managed carefully.
"The long and short of it is that the Zanu-PF pot is ‘overboiling,' and if not managed well, it may very well explode," Masunungure cautioned. "It is therefore incumbent upon the National People's Conference managers to sharpen their conflict resolution skills to abate a dangerous fallout."
The conference, which is expected to deliberate on Zimbabwe's ailing economy, corruption, and the 2030 development agenda, has been overshadowed by a bitter succession battle between Mnangagwa and Chiwenga.
According to party insiders, the tension intensified following a Politburo meeting on Tuesday, where Chiwenga reportedly demanded action on a corruption dossier he submitted to the President in September. The dossier accused prominent businessmen - Wicknell Chivayo, Kudakwashe Tagwirei, and Pedzai "Scott" Sakupwanya - of looting millions from state coffers under the protection of powerful political figures.
Mnangagwa's allies swiftly retaliated, with Justice Minister Ziyambi Ziyambi, who also serves as the party's legal affairs secretary, accusing Chiwenga of treason. Party spokesperson Christopher Mutsvangwa also lashed out at the Vice President, saying he was "turning the presidium into a kangaroo court."
Masunungure said the outcome of the Zanu-PF power struggle will depend on "who holds the strategic cards" within the party's hierarchy.
"The critical factor depends on who is capable of outmanoeuvring the other or, to use Donald Trump's language, ‘who has the cards?' From the vantage point of an outsider looking in, it appears the incumbent Mnangagwa has most of the strategic cards, courtesy of the power of incumbency, both in the party and the state," he said.
He noted that Chiwenga's once-formidable military support base has "significantly eroded" and can no longer be relied upon to engineer another "military-assisted transition" like the one that toppled the late Robert Mugabe in 2017.
Recent internal reshuffles have further deepened speculation of a systematic purge of Chiwenga's allies. Mnangagwa recently removed Obert Mpofu from his influential role as Secretary General, reassigning him to the ICT department, and replaced him with Jacob Mudenda. Days later, Zanu-PF Director General Ezekiel Zabanyana was dismissed - a move widely seen as an attempt to weaken Chiwenga's factional network.
Masunungure warned that the factional conflict could spill beyond party structures and destabilise the state itself.
"The fallout will most probably infect the state, its key organs and processes. More broadly, it will further deepen and widen the already worrying societal polarisation," he said.
Zanu-PF's elective congress in 2027 is expected to be the stage for resolving the succession issue. However, analysts say the resolutions adopted at the Mutare conference could shape the balance of power leading up to that crucial event - and determine whether the ruling party emerges united or fractured.
Source - NewZimbabwe
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