'A junior soldier, not Chiwenga, could remove Mnangagwa' analyst warns of a 'neat, sadly bloody' plot

A provocative Facebook post by influential analyst Dinizulu Macaphulana has injected a new, unsettling theory into Zimbabwe's roiling succession drama: don't watch the retired general - watch the unknown junior officer. In blunt terms, Macaphulana predicted that President Emmerson Mnangagwa will not be toppled by his erstwhile kingmaker, retired Gen. Constantino Chiwenga, but by a lower-ranked military actor whose coup would begin as a joke and end "as a job" - "a neat, and sadly, bloody operation," he wrote.

Macaphulana's message - framed as counsel to Zimbabweans in the Global South to "relax about the General" - frames Chiwenga as both constrained and compromised by his history and tribal politics, and argues that the real threat will come from a younger, less visible officer motivated by a broader "Zimbabwe struggle," not factional Zezuru-versus-Karanga rivalries. The analyst ominously invoked Julius Caesar's murder - "Etu Brute" - to describe the likely brutality and betrayal of the operation.

Analysts say the post taps into a real and widening political fault line inside ZANU-PF. The public falling-out between Mnangagwa and Chiwenga over allegations of corruption, succession timing and the president's reported plan to extend his hold on power has pushed the ruling party into open factional combat ahead of key party meetings. That dispute - and memories of the 2017 military intervention that vaulted Mnangagwa into power - have convinced observers that the security services remain central to any change at the top. 

But the notion that a junior officer could move first - and do so in a way that outflanks the military's senior leadership - is both novel and dangerous. Military coups are rarely lone-wolf affairs: they require logistics, coordination and intent spread across cliques with access to arms, intelligence and transport. Still, analysts say that Zimbabwe's recent factionalization, and the deep mistrust between senior commanders and political elites, create openings for unconventional plots that may not follow the script of 2017. 

"What Macaphulana is doing is casting the threat as more diffuse and unpredictable," said a Harare-based political commentator. "He's saying don't look at the man who has the profile - look at the invisible hand that could move when loyalties collapse." Political commentators warn that such rhetoric can be a self-fulfilling prophecy: talk of plots and martyrdom can prime actors to test limits and provoke miscalculations. 

For Mnangagwa - an 83-year-old leader whose 2017 elevation was enabled by the same military figures now in dispute with him - the public spat with Chiwenga has exposed vulnerabilities. Chiwenga's recent presentation of dossiers alleging corruption by Mnangagwa allies has further hardened intra-party lines and raised the stakes of the succession fight. The result: a party that once managed succession secrecy now faces an open, combustible contest where junior officers, disgruntled paramilitaries or radicalized elements could find space to act. 

Regional governments and diplomats watching Zimbabwe have long feared that a return to military intervention would bring violence and long-term instability. The added dimension Macaphulana outlines - a boutique, surgical attack by a little-known officer rather than a headline-grabbing move by a senior general - would be harder to predict and to deter. That prospect raises troubling questions for neighbours and international partners about early warning, evacuation plans and the fragility of Zimbabwe's security chain of command.

ZANU-PF officials did not respond immediately to requests for comment on Macaphulana's post. Government channels have in recent weeks insisted Mnangagwa remains firmly in command and have played down speculation about a violent takeover, even as party organs publicly debate his "ED2030" agenda and potential extensions of his presidency. 

Macaphulana's post reads less like a forecast than a warning flare: he asks Zimbabweans to stop assuming the obvious actor - Chiwenga - will decide the country's fate. Whether his scenario is credible depends on how fissures inside the military and party evolve in the coming weeks. What is clear is that the rhetoric of betrayal, tribal framing and "liberation" raises the temperature in a polity already fatigued by corruption scandals, economic collapse and political repression.

Observers say the prudent response for civic actors and foreign partners is to press for de-escalation: open channels between rival ZANU-PF factions, protections for political opponents, and clear, apolitical guarantees for the security forces. That may be cold comfort should an opportunistic junior officer choose to test the system - but it is the only realistic alternative to watching Zimbabwe plunge into the kind of bloody, quick coup Macaphulana describes.

Note: the article quotes and paraphrases a Facebook post by analyst Dinizulu Macaphulana provided to this outlet. The post contains explicit predictions of violent action; this report presents them for public awareness and analysis, not as endorsement.