News / National
Pressure group predicts Zanu-PF victory
03 Apr 2013 at 04:33hrs | Views
An MDC-T-aligned pressure group, Zvakwana/Sokwanele, has attributed the record referendum voter turnout to Zanu-PF's effective mobilisation and postulated that this could be repeated in the harmonised elections to deliver a Zanu-PF victory.
In the report titled, "Miracle Votes" - An analysis of the March 2013 Referendum", Sokwanele said the high voter turnout stemmed from Zanu-PF's mobilisation which the lobby tried to downplay as "coercive and intimidatory practices".
"This high voter turnout could be attributed to the coercive capacities of the political parties, especially Zanu-PF . . . This thinking is motivated by the belief that Zanu-PF was using the referendum as a test case for the forthcoming general election slated for this year," Sokwanele said.
The group said the pattern was likely to be replicated in the harmonised elections with Zanu-PF romping to victory.
Sokwanele joins a growing number of people who have forecast a victory for Zanu-PF in the harmonised elections scheduled to be held by June 29 this year.
Last week National Constitutional Assembly chairman Professor Lovemore Madhuku - whose organisation has close links to the MDC-T - said basing on the referendum voting patterns that showed Zanu-PF strongholds delivering the "Yes Vote", Zanu-PF was headed for victory in the harmonised elections.
Prof Madhuku, who was speaking during a discussion forum on the referendum at Sapes Trust, said: "My impression was that most votes were Zanu-PF until I heard Dr (Ibbo) Mandaza saying Tendai (Biti) thinks they were MDC-T.
"It is in the rural areas where votes matter, especially in Mashonaland East province, in Mashonaland Central and Mashonaland West. In Harare, there will be a low voter turnout because some people will not be registered while rural areas will maintain a high voter turnout.
"In the MDC-T strongholds there was so much resistance (at the referendum), especially in Matabeleland provinces. I did not also hear of people who got to the polling station and said they wanted their vote to be cast on Tsvangirai, but it was very common to hear people saying they wanted their vote to be cast on President Mugabe."
That same day a top British paper, The Guardian, said Zanu-PF would ride on President Mugabe's great popularity to seal victory in the harmonised elections.
"The likely scenario is that Zanu-PF will ride the wave of Mugabe's still great popularity to earn another win in the upcoming elections (or, at the very least, get enough genuine votes to ensure that not too much dodgy business is needed to get him across the line)."
Several recent surveys have also pointed to a Zanu-PF victory, a development that analysts say accounts for the MDC-T's bid to delay the polls to try to put its house in order.
In September last year, the UK-based pro-MDC-T group, Zimbabwe Vigil, said the MDC-T was likely to lose the forthcoming harmonised elections because of rampant corruption within its top leadership among other issues.
Zimbabwe Vigil's damning assessment of MDC-T's electoral chances came hard on the heels of two unflattering surveys by the US-based group, Freedom House and Afro Barometer that said President Mugabe and Zanu-PF would win polls ahead of Mr Tsvangirai and the MDC-T.
The Freedom House survey, that was released in August, said support for the MDC-T had fallen from 38 percent in 2010 to 20 percent this year while support for Zanu- PF grew to 31 percent from 17 percent, over the same period.
The survey also said that President Mugabe would command the support of 31 percent of voters in a presidential election, compared to 19 percent for Mr Tsvangirai.
The survey said Zanu-PF had clear programmes such as the land reform and other empowerment programmes to sell to the electorate while the "Change" mantra pushed by MDC-T had lost steam.
The Afro Barometer survey, entitled "Voting Intentions in Zimbabwe: A Margin of Terror?", also put Zanu-PF ahead of MDC-T, but said another coalition government was likely.
Another survey carried out later in the year, in November, by the Mass Public Opinion Institute and released in February this year said Zanu-PF would win the parliamentary elections with 33 percent of the vote to 32 percent for the MDC-T?
In the report titled, "Miracle Votes" - An analysis of the March 2013 Referendum", Sokwanele said the high voter turnout stemmed from Zanu-PF's mobilisation which the lobby tried to downplay as "coercive and intimidatory practices".
"This high voter turnout could be attributed to the coercive capacities of the political parties, especially Zanu-PF . . . This thinking is motivated by the belief that Zanu-PF was using the referendum as a test case for the forthcoming general election slated for this year," Sokwanele said.
The group said the pattern was likely to be replicated in the harmonised elections with Zanu-PF romping to victory.
Sokwanele joins a growing number of people who have forecast a victory for Zanu-PF in the harmonised elections scheduled to be held by June 29 this year.
Last week National Constitutional Assembly chairman Professor Lovemore Madhuku - whose organisation has close links to the MDC-T - said basing on the referendum voting patterns that showed Zanu-PF strongholds delivering the "Yes Vote", Zanu-PF was headed for victory in the harmonised elections.
Prof Madhuku, who was speaking during a discussion forum on the referendum at Sapes Trust, said: "My impression was that most votes were Zanu-PF until I heard Dr (Ibbo) Mandaza saying Tendai (Biti) thinks they were MDC-T.
"It is in the rural areas where votes matter, especially in Mashonaland East province, in Mashonaland Central and Mashonaland West. In Harare, there will be a low voter turnout because some people will not be registered while rural areas will maintain a high voter turnout.
"In the MDC-T strongholds there was so much resistance (at the referendum), especially in Matabeleland provinces. I did not also hear of people who got to the polling station and said they wanted their vote to be cast on Tsvangirai, but it was very common to hear people saying they wanted their vote to be cast on President Mugabe."
"The likely scenario is that Zanu-PF will ride the wave of Mugabe's still great popularity to earn another win in the upcoming elections (or, at the very least, get enough genuine votes to ensure that not too much dodgy business is needed to get him across the line)."
Several recent surveys have also pointed to a Zanu-PF victory, a development that analysts say accounts for the MDC-T's bid to delay the polls to try to put its house in order.
In September last year, the UK-based pro-MDC-T group, Zimbabwe Vigil, said the MDC-T was likely to lose the forthcoming harmonised elections because of rampant corruption within its top leadership among other issues.
Zimbabwe Vigil's damning assessment of MDC-T's electoral chances came hard on the heels of two unflattering surveys by the US-based group, Freedom House and Afro Barometer that said President Mugabe and Zanu-PF would win polls ahead of Mr Tsvangirai and the MDC-T.
The Freedom House survey, that was released in August, said support for the MDC-T had fallen from 38 percent in 2010 to 20 percent this year while support for Zanu- PF grew to 31 percent from 17 percent, over the same period.
The survey also said that President Mugabe would command the support of 31 percent of voters in a presidential election, compared to 19 percent for Mr Tsvangirai.
The survey said Zanu-PF had clear programmes such as the land reform and other empowerment programmes to sell to the electorate while the "Change" mantra pushed by MDC-T had lost steam.
The Afro Barometer survey, entitled "Voting Intentions in Zimbabwe: A Margin of Terror?", also put Zanu-PF ahead of MDC-T, but said another coalition government was likely.
Another survey carried out later in the year, in November, by the Mass Public Opinion Institute and released in February this year said Zanu-PF would win the parliamentary elections with 33 percent of the vote to 32 percent for the MDC-T?
Source - TH
