Mugabe reopens the presidency succession race not out of choice

PRESIDENT Robert Mugabe has said the race to succeed him is wide open despite his recent appointment of two Vice - Presidents, Emmerson Mnangagwa and Phelekezela Mphoko, who were seen as clear favourites. Mugabe insisted he will "never" choose a successor while hinting that the person who takes his place may not be one of his two vice presidents.

There two reasons why Mugabe is doing this; number one, he is not happy with either Mnangagwa or Mphoko taking over. The nation has been begging him name his successor for decades and last year he found himself pressured to appoint the two. He even named VP Mnangagwa the first VP on the clear understanding that he was the one to succeed him when the time comes.

Last year Mugabe was not ready to appoint the person HE is happy to succeed him and hence the subject of succession in back on the national agenda. As far as he is concerned last year's appointments were none events.

Many people believe Mugabe wants his wife to succeed him; she is as keen as mustard to do so. When she announced her political intentions to succeed Mugabe; the nation laughed as a sick joke. She is a woman of no substance, a scatter brain really. Mugabe knew that appointing her last year would have been politically disastrous for himself and her since his hands were full fighting off the challenge from Mrs Mujuru disappointing Mnangagwa would have left him exposed to attach from the two fronts.

By appointing Mnangagwa first VP Mugabe got the total cooperation of Mnangagwa and his faction in the dirty business of dumping Mrs Mujuru. Now that is out of the way Mugabe wanted Mnangagwa to know the succession issue is firmly back on the national agenda.  

He has reopened the succession race with the view of wearing down Zanu PF and the nation's resistance of accepting Grace as president. As we all know, he is a ruthless and dogged fighter who is used to imposing his will on all those around him and the nation at large even when the odds are sky high against him. Who would have thought not even one of the democratic reforms, designed to dismantle his Zanu PF dictatorship, would be implemented in five years of the GNU, for example. Against all the odds he bamboozled and outwitted the MDC leaders into kicking all the reforms into the tall grass and to forget about them for five long years.

The second reason, which would explain why he had not encouraged his chosen successor, Grace, to go into politics until now, is that Mugabe wants to die in office. He knows the minute he named a successor, after decades of corrupt and tyrannical leadership on his part plus his advance age, the pressure on him to go would start to mount and would soon become unbearable even for him.

Mugabe would have heard about the rumour, welcomed by the Zimbabwe public, that started circulating as soon as he named Mnangagwa first Vice President last December 2014 that he was going to retire soon after his 91 birthday. He must be the one who instructed Information Minister, Jonathan Moyo, to have the rumour quashed. The Minister told the nation that VP Mnangagwa was not the heir apparent because the appointment was just that an appointment and not the anointment!  

Poor VP Mnangagwa; after decades of bending over backwards to please Mugabe and placing himself into contention to win the succession race, last year he must have thought he finally had his fingers on the crown when he was named first VP. He could not believe his own ears when he heard Minister Moyo say he was not the heir apparent. Mugabe is now rubbing it in by confirming that the last decades-long race counted for nothing.

In typical Mugabe autocratic style, he did not give any detail when the new race will take place, when and where. All he would say is everyone in the party's over 300 central committee members was eligible to enter the race and not just the two VPs.

Mnangagwa does not even know whether he will be on the starting line up! Indeed for all he knows, he could well find himself in trouble as happened to the last front runner, Mai Mujuru. She was accused of this new Zanu PF crime called "factionalism"; he cannot deny being the leader of the second faction!

As far as Mugabe is concerned the convergence of the two reasons suits his purpose beautifully; he is having his cake and eating it too. There economic penalties to be paid but he is not one to concern himself with such matter – at least, not until he absolutely has to.

The Chinese promised Mugabe the $4 billion power project funding on the understanding that their man, Mnangagwa will succeed Mugabe; according a The Telescope report. Just as well that was a post-dated cheque, the Chinese must be thinking now, because they had not started spending any of that money; they will not spend a penny now until their man is safely sworn in office.

As far as the Chinese are concerned Mugabe is going back on his word that Mnangagwa would succeed him as president and so the long overdue power projects Mugabe announced when returned from China with all fanfare are back on hold again. The failure to implement key projects on time has been one of the many contributory factors to the nation's poor economic performance under Mugabe's autocratic rule. The nation will be groaning with pain to know the Chinese projects are now being delayed once again for Mugabe's selfish political reasons.

Zimbabwe is facing the worst economic meltdown is in history; unemployment is a nauseating 90% plus, 76% of the population are now living on less than $200 per month, individual incomes are at their lowest level in 60 years, etc. Mugabe's ZimAsset recovery plan is dead in the water and so as long as he and Zanu PF remain in power the economic situation will only get worse.

Zimbabwe is desperate, desperate for leadership renewal and with it, hopefully, a change of direction. The nation is so desperate people do not care how Mugabe goes; they just want him to go. When Mugabe tripped and fell last month the whole nation was really disappointed that he got up again as shown by the way they mocked him to vent their frustration.

Although Mugabe has shown his usual indifference to the country's economic meltdown and the suffering it is causing what is clear is it is not going away. Economic meltdown has now thrown its python coils round the regime and it is squeezing hard.

Every month Finance Minister, Patrick Chinamasa, has struggled to find enough money to pay civil servants wages let alone find money for Mugabe and his wife's extravagant lifestyles. In a week when Mugabe has squandered at least $2 million on his birthday party, the Minister has announced that he is rescheduling the repayment of government's mounting debt; he has no money to pay the debt. The regime has also said it is going to cut civil servants' wages; most of who are poorly paid as it is. This situation cannot continue like this. The country's economic meltdown is not socially or politically sustainable, even for a seasoned tyrant like Mugabe.

After 35 years of absolute power in which Mugabe's political opponents within his own party and outside have all failed to force him to give up power, even though he has a dismal economic performance record and murderous political one; it is the economic meltdown that will force him to give up power.


Who is going to succeed Mugabe and when are now irrelevant because Mugabe or his would be successor' days in power are numbered. The country's current economic situation is socially and politically unsustainable and the only way to end the meltdown is for Mugabe or his successor to step down or he/she will be forced out of office the Muammar Gaddafi way.  

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Wilbert Mukori can be contacted at zimbabwesocialdemocrats@gmail.com