Minister Mthuli's Anaconda Choke on the Informal Sector Marks the End of Zanu PF Rule

Zimbabwe's Minister of Finance, Mthuli Ncube, has taken drastic measures to clamp down on the informal sector, a move being described as an "anaconda choke" on the backbone of the nation's struggling economy. With raids on shops, the confiscation of goods, fines imposed on buses and private cars, and intensified border searches, the government aims to curb illegal smuggling and force tax compliance. However, this crackdown, particularly during the festive season, is being viewed as an economic and political blunder with far-reaching implications.


The informal sector has long been the lifeline for millions of Zimbabweans, providing essential goods and services in a nation plagued by high unemployment, chronic forex shortages, and the government's inability to meet the needs of formal businesses. With unemployment hovering around 80% and a dire lack of opportunities in the formal sector, the informal economy has not only sustained livelihoods but also played a critical role in ensuring affordable goods for the majority.

However, Mthuli's clampdown, targeting "cheap $1 deals" and informal shops, risks plunging the nation into further economic turmoil. As goods are confiscated and supply chains disrupted, shelves in informal stores are running dry, and prices are expected to skyrocket.

Political analysts warn that these measures, which lack any accompanying robust economic plan, could backfire spectacularly on the ruling Zanu PF government. "Mthuli Ncube's rushed attack on the informal sector is a recipe for disaster," says political analyst Tapiwa Chikwana. "Zanu PF's demise is being precipitated towards 2028 or 2030, whatever the case might be. This assault on the only functioning part of the economy will only frustrate an already angry population."

The timing of the clampdown could not be worse. As Zimbabweans prepare for the festive season, traditionally a time for increased consumption and economic activity, many now face uncertainty about access to basic goods. Without a clear plan to stabilize the economy, the measures have left traders and consumers alike in a state of panic.

The informal sector has served as a buffer against the government's failures, offering affordable groceries, beer, and essential commodities. Now, with these channels under attack, ordinary citizens are bearing the brunt of rising costs and dwindling supplies. Traders, many of whom depend on cross-border goods, complain about being fined and having their goods seized. The sentiment on the ground is one of anger and betrayal.

The crackdown comes against the backdrop of Zanu PF's waning popularity. Recent elections revealed a growing opposition to the ruling party, and this latest move is likely to alienate even more voters. Analysts argue that this heavy-handed approach could accelerate the erosion of Zanu PF's support base, especially in urban areas where the informal sector is most vibrant. 

The government's inability to create jobs, stabilize the currency, and provide forex to businesses has pushed more Zimbabweans into the informal sector. Instead of addressing the root causes of the economic crisis, the clampdown feels like a desperate attempt to plug fiscal holes without regard for its social and political consequences.

As one informal trader put it, "We are not smuggling because we want to, but because the system forces us to. If the government can't provide goods and forex, how else are we supposed to survive?"

With inflation already high and the cost of living unbearable for most, the attack on the informal sector could be the final straw. As the festive season unfolds, discontent is likely to grow, setting the stage for even more political and economic challenges for Zanu PF.

In the words of Chikwana, "This is not just about goods and services; it's about the survival of millions of Zimbabweans. The government has miscalculated, and the consequences will echo well beyond this festive season."

As Zimbabwe inches closer to 2028 or 2030, one thing is clear: Zanu PF's grip on power is loosening, and its downfall could be hastened by its own policies. Mthuli Ncube's "anaconda choke" may well be the catalyst for change.