Why Tsvangirai should go it alone in 2018

Opposition parties in Zimbabwe have, for the past few months, been hyping a grand coalition that is envisaged to hand Zanu-PF a resounding defeat in 2018. While the idea of one "great" united opposition sounds very appealing on paper, the reality on the ground tells a totally different story and reinforces the belief held by many that MDC-T leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, widely viewed by some as the pioneer of opposition politics in the country, stands a better chance against Zanu-PF in 2018 if he goes it alone.

This school of thought is largely premised on the fact that Tsvangirai has for the past 17 years, managed to hold his own against Zanu-PF, managing to poll large numbers at subsequent elections, with some going so far as to argue that he won a couple of elections. Whether or not Tsvangirai actually won any election previously, is subject to debate, however what is not in dispute is that Tsvangirai has earned his stripes as an opposition leader and is capable of getting the required number of supporters to vote for him in 2018, granted he presents policies and promises that appeal to the electorate.

Given Tsvangirai's struggle in the opposition trenches and the brand he has created for himself, it would be a disservice to him, his legacy and his long-time loyal supporters, to allow new kids on the block and political parasites to ride on his back and get voted into power in 2018.

Possible co-leaders of the coalition, such as Dr Joice Mujuru of the National People's Party and Dumiso Dabengwa, are at best, political spent forces. Some analysts are of the view that Dr Mujuru is not worth her salt as a politician and her only claim to relevance is liberation war exploits that could have been doctored to pimp her political image. And while Dabengwa has tried to assert himself as an opposition leader, the current shambolic state of his ZAPU party betrays his poor leadership skills. It boggles the mind therefore, what Tsvangirai stands to gain from sharing the pedestal or having his name mentioned in the same breath as these two. As for the other numerous opposition parties sprouting on a daily basis, it would be naïve of Tsvangirai or anyone else to think that they stand to bring any notable value to the country's politics as some, if not most, are briefcase money making ventures.

Additionally, it would be folly for Tsvangirai to dent his political image by entering into a venture that is doomed to fail as signalled by the current confusion in and tussle for positions among envisaged participants in the coalition. Dr Mujuru recently received a shellacking in local media after suggesting that primary elections should be held to choose a leader for the mooted coalition, before tooting her own horn and declaring that she was best suited to lead the coalition owing to her participation in the liberation struggle. Never mind the fact that she is a johnie-come-lately in the opposition circles who is yet to prove her worth.

Furthermore, indications on the ground already betray growing disharmony over the issue of who is best suited to lead the proposed coalition of opposition parties.

Before it has even materialised, the haggling for posts and relevance among expected participants in the opposition coalition is already driving away would-be supporters and donors. This has also led to international think tanks such as Afrobarometer and political analysts such as Dr Toendepi Shonhe, concluding that Zanu-PF is set for victory in the 2018 harmonised elections, dismissing chances of an opposition coalition romping to victory.

Speaking at a Mass Public Opinion Institute, (MPOI) public seminar held at a local hotel in the capital, Zimbabwe Democracy Institute  Executive Director, Pedzisai Ruhanya, summed it up nicely saying "if the MDC were to reconstitute itself to the position of 1999 when it started, I think that is the basis of a coalition. Anything other than that is a fallacy."

With less than 14 months to the 2018 harmonised elections, the general consensus is that it would be ill-advised and a miscalculation on Tsvangirai's part, to experiment with the idea of a coalition with shaky, spent and at times, pseudo-opposition nonentities, at a time when the MDC-T should be at full throttle campaigning for 2018.