Julius Malema carries Mugabe torch

TWENTY years ago, South Africa transitioned to a full, non-racial democracy and elected Nelson Mandela president. This week, its citizens went to the polls for the first vote of the post-Mandela era - testing the questions of race, justice, and resources.

With counting of votes nearing a close last night, the allure of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) as the conqueror of apartheid appeared to have prevailed - but the solid showing by Julius Malema's upstart Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and gains for the Democratic Alliance (DA) could very well shake the Rainbow Nation off Mandela's path.

Helen Zille's DA, whose stronghold has been the Eastern Cape region, has been the traditional opponent to the ANC. It is often seen as a white or Afrikaner party, though it now fields articulate and popular black candidates like Mmusi Maimane in regions like Gauteng, which includes Johannesburg.

The ANC, made famous by Mandela, and which inspired South Africans with its heroes and moral courage, is now led by President Jacob Zuma, who generates ambivalence than enthusiasm and is seen as riddled with corruption and cronyism.

With the results from 97 percent of all polling stations tabulated last night, the ruling party led with 62 percent of the vote, down slightly from the results of the 2009 elections. The Democratic Alliance was winning 22 percent of the vote, gaining a few percentage points from the last  election.

The Economic Freedom Fighters, led by Malema, had garnered nearly 6 percent.

The real story of the election is the rise of the 33-year-old upstart candidate who appears to share few of Mandela's approaches but draws his inspiration from President Mugabe.

Malema was the youth leader of the ruling ANC until he was kicked out two years ago. Since then, he has become one of the ANC's most devastating critics and is channeling the growing rage of many black youths.

He points to chasms between rich and poor in housing, jobs, and land ownership. Like Cde Mugabe, he advocates nationalising the majority of the nation's all-important mines and is impatient with the pace of land reforms. He says the ANC, the party of liberation, has simply preserved apartheid's economic inequalities while lining its own pockets.

At the end of April, Malema said the old ANC had died with Mandela and the new corrupt ANC was that of Zuma. And that sentiment does resonate, it seems, with the over a million people who entrusted their vote with Malema's party, guaranteeing him a seat in South Africa's parliament.

In Marikana, a gritty town two hours outside Johannesburg whose platinum mine is political ground zero for Malema and urban shantytowns like Soweto, Malema's populist slogan – "Enough is Enough!"- is being used to great effect.

He captures and reflects the grievances of poor youths who see no future in a country where 50 percent of the population is under 30-years-old and 45 percent is under 25. He is starting to build a grass-roots movement by making politics seem very cool and exciting to them.

"When Mandela came in, we thought we were going to live in big houses like the whites and would be able to leave the mines. No way," grimaces Shadrack, a miner in Marikana.

"Look at this place," Shadrack says, pointing to his humble neighbourhood from a fly-infested front porch that serves as a common area for three families. "There are no streets, no electricity, no plumbing, one water tap for all the homes. The toilets outside are not emptied regularly. Twenty years is a long time not to have improved this. We voted for Malema."

Malema's proposals are far more radical than anything Mandela considered. Beyond moving immediately to nationalise 60 percent of the mines that produce South Africa's most lucrative export, Malema promotes public and private land seizures and redistribution of wealth.

His in-your-face, quick-fix solutions often sound as if they have been pulled right from the playbook of President Mugabe, someone Malema openly admires. In the region, many see him as the new torch bearer of Cde Mugabe's black empowerment programmes.

Malema has been far more effective than anyone imagined. His crowds during the campaign were voluminous, with constant media attention. He stirred a mixture of controversy, amusement, and worry everywhere he went.

"The Malema phenomenon shows there's still room for populist politics in our democracy," observed Patricia de Lille, the mayor of Cape Town.

While many of his supporters adore him as a harbinger of overdue change, an almost messiah-like saviour, many analysts warn that Malema's ideas, if ever tried, will lead to racial violence and economic chaos and ruin – pointing to Zimbabwe's recent past, the exodus of whites which triggered a backlash from their American and British cousins who responded with debilitating economic sanctions.

"Let's not treat the EFF as something to joke about," one presidential candidate, Mamphela Ramphele, a former World Bank director, said. "It represents a serious threat to our future. Instant gratification is Malema's approach. Nationalisation, confiscation of people's property, confiscation of banks… Malema knows that will bankrupt the country."

Former President Frederik de Klerk argues that investor confidence and stability are needed for a robust economy. At a recent event in Cape Town, De Klerk, who shared the Nobel Peace Prize with Mandela, was asked about the effect of a strong Malema vote.

De Klerk professed a lack of worry, stating that Malema would get only 5 to 6 percent of the vote. But what if he got more than 10 percent?

"That would be very dangerous," De Klerk said.

But inside the ANC, where some sections – including the Women's Wing of Winnie Mandela – strongly support Malema, his political rise is most definitely not going unnoticed.

"He's riding on real issues that still deeply affect South Africans, like land and economic exclusion," ANC deputy minister Obed Bapela said. "People have waited 20 years and things do need to change. But we aren't following Malema's prescriptions. We will continue with a gradualist approach."

But what is important about Malema may not be 2014. Analysts say he is not selling policies and solutions but style and persona, and that his interest is in building himself as a brand for the future.

"Checking the polls is not his game," says Dewa Mavhinga of Human Rights Watch. "He considers himself a force to be reckoned with in four to 10 years. He's building a foundation… He's learning to harness anger."

Concern for the future is serious enough for writer Richard Poplak of the magazine Daily Maverick to title his upcoming book on the 2014 race "Until Julius Comes," a provocative title playing off fears that Malema's demographic appeal is inevitable.

Some say Malema might get blowback from his own finger-pointing. In April, he was observed flying to his rallies in a costly helicopter while telling crowds he desperately needed donations. He is not known for any kind of disciplined ideological purity. Yet he is skilled in turning such contradictions to his advantage. He is a great speaker.

When asked in television interviews how he reconciles expensive tastes and being a champion of the poor, he says it is racist to imply blacks cannot be allowed to do well and own nice things. Many blacks describe being "lifted" at Malema's rallies out of themselves.

Malema, whose single mother was a domestic worker, is both famous and infamous for speaking his mind to the point of incitement. He has called Zuma a "fool" who has betrayed blacks. He has said whites do not really belong in Africa. Recently, he asked supporters to attack tollgates erected last year to collect road taxes, and the public broadcaster, SABC, refused to run campaign ads that included the violent request.

He is equally strident about land ownership. Speaking to students at a college in Durban in April, Malema said that land in South Africa must be returned to its "rightful owners" and that only then "we'll have friendship," adding that: "You can't be my friend for as long as you're still illegally holding what belongs to me."

As Malema's rise becomes a major story however, some analysts are demanding a pause to reflect: This is South Africa. Since 1994, the nation has built 5 million new homes for its destitute; it has undergone a historic social transformation; it hosted (and won) the Rugby World Cup. It is not, like Rhodesia, mainly agricultural, but cosmopolitan.

South Africa, as far as wealth, infrastructure, and literacy are concerned, is the leading constitutional democracy in Africa. Unlike Nigeria, a petrostate, it has a first-class power grid and functioning institutions. It is a tourist mecca. It has a vibrant and free press.

South Africa spends a lot on social services already, even if more may be needed. Citizens feel a certain exceptional quality about their state. So Malema's rise to power is hardly secure as he rides powerful negative social and economic dynamics. A new ANC leader could change or renew the complexion of that party, analysts point out.

And while Malema joined the ANC at age nine, he has never governed. His modest election success now means he would need to do more than make rhetorical attacks, but would have to get involved in the effort to govern. He and his brand could simply fade away, his opponents speculate.

Agang SA leader Mamphela Ramphele, part of the "black consciousness" movement that helped end apartheid, is not sanguine: "Malema stepped into an opportunity waiting to be taken. Serious studies show his plan is unimplementable. But he knows he's dealing with people who aren't analytical."

The ANC will feel the force of Malema from the Parliament floor, but Zuma would be quietly satisfied that his party had the best political "ground game" of any party. Analysts say the party did better than expected after holding onto the "psychological threshold" of above 60 percent in the vote. A score below 60 would have brought upheaval in the ruling party and by extension the country that it largely runs.