3 million Zimbabweans in SA?

I trust yours is a blessed Sunday. When one is confronted with stupidity they can respond in two ways: cure the fool or allow it so suffer in ignorance. I'm feeling particularly generous today so let's get the logical medicines out.

On May 23, 2013 Voice of America carried an article authored by one Blessing Zulu. The journalist was reporting on the plight of Zimbabweans in South Africa that face uncertainty over the renewal of work permits by immigration authorities.

What I found remarkable was the manner in which Zulu quoted statistics that cannot survive even the most casual interrogation. I doubt he was being malicious, he is just gullible.

He said: "Millions of foreigners, including an estimated three million Zimbabweans, are studying and working in South Africa, one of Africa's developed nations." Zulu is not alone in his credulity. Dozens of local and international publications have repeated the suspicious claim that there are three million Zimbabweans living in South Africa. This has elevated the claim to accepted fact. The fact of the matter is that these numbers cannot be true.

During his time as Finance Minister Tendai Biti supervised the census whose data is now available and can hopefully be relied upon given that it was overseen by the scrupulous opposition movement.

According to that census there are 1,025,596 males in Harare province. Mashonaland East boasts 651 781 males. Matabeleland North has 360 776 while the Midlands is home to 776 012 potential victims of male genital mutilation. Zanu-PF political heartland Mashonaland Central has 576 140 patriotic males.

Now you are probably wondering how these numbers are relevant. They give you context and a picture of what three million people look like.

You would have to evacuate every single male in the aforementioned provinces to put together three million people. Not a single male would be left in Harare province! Just imagine every single male you know in Harare suddenly moving to South Africa. It's inconceivable and that is precisely why I am using the census numbers Tendai Biti very generously provided us during his stint as minister.

Figures from Statistics South Africa - through the 2011 Census - including those collated by the World Bank present additional problems for the would-be sensationalist. The South African 2011 Census report established that of the country's 51,7 million people living in South Africa only 3,3 percent, or 1,7 million people, are non-South African citizens.

The United Nations and the World Bank put the figure at 1,86 million people.

The question is how any serious publication can continue to speculate that there are three million Zimbabweans in South Africa when the authorities in that country as well as the World Bank have stated that there are less than two million immigrants in the country?

Even that 1,86 million figure is made up of migrants from other parts of the continent such as Mozambique, Namibia, Swaziland and Lesotho.

Let us be generous and assume that the 1,86 million immigrants are all Zimbabweans. This still puts the number of imaginary Zimbabweans in the Southern African country at more than 1,2 million.

Statistics on residency applications from the department of home affairs in South Africa also further buttress the suspicion that the number of Zimbabweans in South Africa is grossly overstated.

A total of 1 283 permanent residency applications were processed in 2012, with Zimbabwean nationals accounting for 251 of them.

Let's assume there are indeed three million Zimbabweans in South Africa. The question is how did they get there? Most likely by bus since people fleeing poverty would not be expected to have the money to afford the comforts of air travel.

A bus carries 75 people or so.

You would need 40 000 buses travelling into South Africa with nobody coming back. Assuming that Zimbabwe Revenue Authority ( Zimra) staff at Beitbridge Border Post take 10 minutes to clear a bus and are working non-stop clearing buses full of Zimbabweans, it will take them 24 hours to clear 144 buses.

ZIMRA would need nearly a year, 278 days to be specific, to clear all those buses.

We must really be in a major crisis. The United Nations believes there are 2 805 715 Syrians that have fled the vicious civil war that has torn Syria apart. Mind you this is from a population of about 23 million. Are we really meant to believe that more people have left Zimbabwe over economic difficulties than have fled for their lives in Syria? It takes an especially simple mind to believe such nonsense.

'Bush statistics'
Economist Mr Brains Muchemwa said last week the main cause of unreliable figures is "bush statistics" that are repeated so often that they have become fact.

"The main challenge that we have are bush statistics that are often repeated as fact. If you follow some of the estimates of Zimbabweans in South Africa, the UK and other parts of the world, you will find out that the number almost comes to 20 million, which in untrue.

"A census is conclusive; in fact, it is very conclusive: If South Africa says its immigrants are less than 1,7 million, then that has to be taken as fact. Remember, there are also Somalis, Nigerians, migrants from Mozambique in equal measure to Zimbabweans in South Africa," said Mr Muchemwa, adding: "Perhaps what we lack is an integrated immigration system and this has opened the door to bush statistics.

"When considering that the majority of Zimbabweans who go to South Africa are mainly transitory, the figure of loca ls there could be less than 500 000."