Shattered opposition lets Bob jive as Zim dives

Back in the 1990s, the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU) was a fierce opponent of President Robert Mugabe. It drove the rise of resistance politics and gave birth to the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), Zimbabwe's largest opposition party.

Unions were at the front line political activism when Morgan Tsvangirai headed the federation and went on to found the MDC in September 1999. He has remained a thorn in Mugabe's side ever since.

But unlike Mugabe, who marked 35 years in power in April, unions are weaker than ever and the opposition is deeply divided. This could keep Mugabe's party, the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (Zanu-PF), in power for many more years.

Union muscle, like its close ally, the MDC, is weakening. According to research released in May, 63 percent of Zimbabweans trust Mugabe more than the opposition. The MDC's popularity has dropped from 57 percent in 2008 to 31 percent in 2012, while Zanu-PF's has grown from 10 percent to 31 percent in the same period, according to the report by South African-based think-tank Afrobarometer and the Zimbabwe-based Mass Public Opinion Institute.

"Opposition political parties are least trusted," reads the survey, a point that is illustrated by the MDC's electoral defeat to Zanu-PF in 2013. said Alex Magaisa, a former legal adviser to Tsvangirai.

"Is it that people see Zanu-PF as a better devil?" he asked. "Is it that the fights and splits in the opposition have reduced levels of confidence in the opposition?"

The MDC has splintered into several incarnations since it first split in 2005. Now there are three: MDC-T headed by Tsvangirai, the MDC and the MDC Renewal Team, formed last year. These divisions and a downward spiralling economy have crippled organised labour.

TVade union militancy began in the 1990s when the unemployment rate averaged 7 percent, according to the Reserve Bank, in contrast to the current estimated 90 percent

"The number of members in trade unions and the workforce was much bigger than is the case today," said economist John

Robertson. "The economy was not so hostile and business was protected by government regulation, which was seen to be more supportive of employers.

"Today, unions find themselves on the receiving end; job creation has fallen sharply, membership has fallen and income, which it relies on for survival, has dwindled."

Company closures and retrenchments have become the new norm.

The labour movement is in the doldrums because "most people are in informal employment," said Harare-based economist Vince Musewe. Formal employees "are owed thousands of dollars in unpaid salaries and are unwilling to engage in strikes which may be seen as illegal", he added.

The downturn has been devastating for ZCTU, which had 400 000 members at its peak in 1995. Its strikes often brought business to a standstill and involved battles with police.

But in the last decade, ZCTUs membership had fallen by 60 percent to 160 000, Japhet Moyo, the ZCTU secretary- general told

Compounding this was the government's reputation for beating or arresting dissenters, said Vivid Gwede, a political commentator.

In addition, ZCTU is weakened by internal leadership wrangles and emerging factions. When it calls out its troops, it cannot count on their arrival.

The federation "meanders between politics and labour" said Sifiso Ndlovu, chief executive of the Zimbabwe Teachers' Association. "Its attachment in particular to the MDC led by Tsvangirai is compromising the work of trade unions and workers, and that has been its undoing. Other organisations that have labour interests are left doubtful of their sincerity?

A fragmented opposition on one side and an economy in tailspin on the other darkens its demise and brightens the chances that Mugabe's Zanu-PF will continue to rule. - Good Governance Africa

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Ndlovu is a journalist based in Zimbabwe. He writes for the Financial Gazette