ZSE index surges 63% but market value rises just 2.42%

The Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) All Share Index has surged 63% since the beginning of the year, but the headline rally masks a far more modest increase in the overall value of shares traded on the market.


According to the latest market analysis, the All Share Index rose by 63% between 31 December 2025 and 11 September 2026, while the combined market capitalisation of the shares represented by the index increased by only 2.42% over the same period. The disparity has raised questions about what the index’s strong performance actually reflects, given changes in market composition, concentration of gains and liquidity conditions.

The analysis found that the index rally was concentrated largely in two months and driven by just four counters, meaning the headline increase did not represent broad‑based gains across the market. Market capitalisation, which measures the combined value of listed companies based on share prices and shares in issue, provides a different perspective from index movement. An index can rise sharply when a small number of heavily weighted counters appreciate, even if the wider market shows limited growth.

The report also highlights significant changes in the ZSE’s composition during the period. Five companies exited the board, removing 21.59% of the market value recorded in December 2025. Such changes affect headline comparisons because the universe of listed companies shifts over time.

The analysis further found that CBZ and FBC generated 182% of the board’s third‑quarter gain, underlining how concentrated the rally was. The figure does not mean the two counters alone accounted for 182% of the market’s total value increase, but rather that their gains outweighed declines or stagnation elsewhere.

The findings suggest that the 63% increase in the All Share Index should not be interpreted as evidence of an equivalent expansion in the value of the entire listed equity market. Instead, the performance must be considered alongside index composition, counter weightings, liquidity and the companies that entered or exited the market.

The concentration of gains also highlights the gap between index performance and the experience of individual investors. Those holding the few surging counters may have seen substantial increases in value, while others invested elsewhere may have recorded very different returns.

Liquidity remains another key factor. A rise in the quoted price of a share does not necessarily translate into a proportionate increase in capital traded. Thinly traded counters can record large price movements on limited volumes.

The report therefore presents a more nuanced picture of the ZSE’s 2026 performance. The 63% rise in the All Share Index is a significant movement in quoted prices, but the much smaller 2.42% increase in market capitalisation demonstrates why index performance, market size and trading activity must be examined separately.

For market observers, the analysis reinforces the importance of looking beyond headline index figures when assessing the health and direction of the equities market. Factors such as the number of companies contributing to gains, concentration of market value, changes in listings, trading volumes and liquidity provide essential context.

With five companies having left the board and a small number of counters accounting for most of the gains, the composition of the ZSE has become central to interpreting its 2026 performance. The latest figures therefore present two contrasting pictures: a 63% rise in the headline All Share Index against a 2.42% increase in market capitalisation since the end of 2025.

The gap between the two measures sits at the centre of the latest analysis of the ZSE rally.

This update contributes to broader discussions around market concentration and index‑versus‑capitalisation dynamics.