News / Local
Zanu-PF win inevitable?
12 Jul 2023 at 03:13hrs | Views
A SURGE in the support of President Mnangagwa ahead of this year's harmonised elections is an endorsement of his leadership and acceptance of the deliverables that are on the ground from the electorate, Zanu-PF linked political analysts have said.
This follows the publication of a survey by the Mass Public Opinion Institute (MPOI), a research organisation, that showed President Mnangagwa winning this August presidential election. According to the survey, Zanu-PF will attract 35 percent of the votes while CCC would probably garner 27 percent of the vote.
The MPOI survey findings are almost similar to other publications from the United States-based Fitch Solutions, which also predicted a Zanu-PF win in the forthcoming elections.
An analyst Dr Tongai Dana said winning elections is a result of a combination of factors among them being an opportunity for the electorate to punish or reward political parties for bad or good performance.
Dr Dana said the political party that delivers in the area where it was accorded a mandate to serve the people in previous elections has a story to tell.
"Now the main political parties that have put candidates for president and legislative and local authority positions have all had opportunities to demonstrate the capacity to deliver save for those coming in as independent candidates.
"The survey is a reflection of how the electorate has rated the surveyed political parties. Based on this, the percentage that Zanu-PF is projected to get is truly a reflection of the electorate's hearts and souls.
"The electorate knows that the Second Republic has demonstrated the capacity and willingness to deliver a better Zimbabwe. Zanu-PF since the turn of the Second Republic has made remarkable developmental milestones," he said.
Dr Dana said a number of policy and legislative reforms aimed at establishing conditions that guarantee the improvement of the lives of the people of Zimbabwe have been formulated and approved, transformative projects in various economic sectors have been implemented and many are currently being implemented this is to mention just, but a few.
He said, on the other hand, the percentage that CCC is also getting is on the basis of its performance in areas the party has been given a mandate to serve the people.
Dr Dana said the percentage is the score that the electorate has rated it in local authorities where the party has presided over chaos and serious deterioration of service provision.
"CCC party local authorities' representatives have also been implicated in corruption which is rampant in local authorities," he said.
Dr Dana said winning or losing elections is about the investment that political parties put in their election processes starting with internal party election processes.
He said it is difficult for a political party whose internal candidate selection process left many of its candid supporters disgruntled to win elections.
"It is difficult for a party whose manifesto, the main tool that any political party uses to canvas for voters is not well communicated, that is in a way that the electorate can connect with and understand easily.
"The political party that invests relevant and sufficient resources and effort into election processes in terms of visibility and inclusivity is the one that wins. Whatever political party which did well in the above areas is the one that the survey results showed will win. That's is Zanu-PF," he said.
Dr Dana added: "CCC will also get votes that measure up to its performance in this regard. The survey results have shown that".
A lecturer at the University of Zimbabwe Department of Governance and Public Management, Dr Prolific Mataruse said MPOI, which is a national partner of the reputable Afrobarometer is a very credible pollster.
"It has been consistently correct in the previous elections in Zimbabwe. The present survey has confirmed what many other analysts and surveys have been saying, that Zanu-PF will win the 2023 election at all levels of presidential, parliamentary, and local Government.
"Zanu-PF has been the most organized political party as compared to the other political parties whose election campaigns started late or are disorganised due to internal strife," he said.
Dr Mataruse said, while most focus on the finding that Zanu-PF is likely to win the election, the survey has over 100 questions including other important policy matters like access to ICT and employment trends that can be useful for national policy formulation.
Another analyst Dr Augustine Tirivangana, the percentage may in fact be an understatement.
"The survey results may as well be an understatement. Given the magnitude and intensity of preparation by Zanu-PF, versus the lethargy of its opponents, relative to previous polls, the fact that Zanu-PF will romp to an emphatic victory overwhelmingly is certainly not in question," he said.
CCC sympathiser, Dr Phillan Zamchiya commenting on the Afro-barometer's Pre-Election Survey conceded that it is an early wake-up call for CCC
"The survey is not all rosy for the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) electoral prospects in the general election scheduled for 23 August 2023. There is of course a paradox in the Afro-barometer research as I unpack later.
"However, my view is that it is time for the CCC to collectively reflect and put all boots on the ground in order to turn the tide. This is a better approach because even if the survey turns out not to be a true reflection of political dynamics on the ground, the CCC would have increased its margin of victory come 23 August. In short, they would have lost nothing.
"An easier and self-soothing approach would be to bury one's head in the sand and continue with business as usual. This is dangerous because if the survey turns to be a true reflection of political dynamics on the ground, the CCC would have done nothing and lost everything with no room for correction till the 2028 general election," he said.
Dr Zamchiya added: "In a turn of voting trends, the survey shows a decline in support for the opposition and a surge in support for the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (Zanu-PF)".
"If presidential elections were to be held a day after the survey, the CCC leader would lose to the Zanu-PF leader. The survey signals that 27 percent of respondents would vote for Chamisa against 35 percent for Mnangagwa.
This means that the CCC leader's support base has decreased by 6 percent since June 2022. This marks the first decline in Chamisa's vote since he became leader of the opposition. When Chamisa took over from Tsvangirai, only 16 percent freely expressed intentions to vote for him but this had exponentially gone up to 33 percent by June 2022.
Also of significance is that Chamisa's vote used to be far ahead of his party but the gap has closed to 1 percent," he said.
He dismissed assertions by some media groups that the percentage of people who did not reveal their voting preferences are CCC supporters.
This follows the publication of a survey by the Mass Public Opinion Institute (MPOI), a research organisation, that showed President Mnangagwa winning this August presidential election. According to the survey, Zanu-PF will attract 35 percent of the votes while CCC would probably garner 27 percent of the vote.
The MPOI survey findings are almost similar to other publications from the United States-based Fitch Solutions, which also predicted a Zanu-PF win in the forthcoming elections.
An analyst Dr Tongai Dana said winning elections is a result of a combination of factors among them being an opportunity for the electorate to punish or reward political parties for bad or good performance.
Dr Dana said the political party that delivers in the area where it was accorded a mandate to serve the people in previous elections has a story to tell.
"Now the main political parties that have put candidates for president and legislative and local authority positions have all had opportunities to demonstrate the capacity to deliver save for those coming in as independent candidates.
"The survey is a reflection of how the electorate has rated the surveyed political parties. Based on this, the percentage that Zanu-PF is projected to get is truly a reflection of the electorate's hearts and souls.
"The electorate knows that the Second Republic has demonstrated the capacity and willingness to deliver a better Zimbabwe. Zanu-PF since the turn of the Second Republic has made remarkable developmental milestones," he said.
Dr Dana said a number of policy and legislative reforms aimed at establishing conditions that guarantee the improvement of the lives of the people of Zimbabwe have been formulated and approved, transformative projects in various economic sectors have been implemented and many are currently being implemented this is to mention just, but a few.
He said, on the other hand, the percentage that CCC is also getting is on the basis of its performance in areas the party has been given a mandate to serve the people.
Dr Dana said the percentage is the score that the electorate has rated it in local authorities where the party has presided over chaos and serious deterioration of service provision.
"CCC party local authorities' representatives have also been implicated in corruption which is rampant in local authorities," he said.
Dr Dana said winning or losing elections is about the investment that political parties put in their election processes starting with internal party election processes.
He said it is difficult for a political party whose internal candidate selection process left many of its candid supporters disgruntled to win elections.
"It is difficult for a party whose manifesto, the main tool that any political party uses to canvas for voters is not well communicated, that is in a way that the electorate can connect with and understand easily.
"The political party that invests relevant and sufficient resources and effort into election processes in terms of visibility and inclusivity is the one that wins. Whatever political party which did well in the above areas is the one that the survey results showed will win. That's is Zanu-PF," he said.
A lecturer at the University of Zimbabwe Department of Governance and Public Management, Dr Prolific Mataruse said MPOI, which is a national partner of the reputable Afrobarometer is a very credible pollster.
"It has been consistently correct in the previous elections in Zimbabwe. The present survey has confirmed what many other analysts and surveys have been saying, that Zanu-PF will win the 2023 election at all levels of presidential, parliamentary, and local Government.
"Zanu-PF has been the most organized political party as compared to the other political parties whose election campaigns started late or are disorganised due to internal strife," he said.
Dr Mataruse said, while most focus on the finding that Zanu-PF is likely to win the election, the survey has over 100 questions including other important policy matters like access to ICT and employment trends that can be useful for national policy formulation.
Another analyst Dr Augustine Tirivangana, the percentage may in fact be an understatement.
"The survey results may as well be an understatement. Given the magnitude and intensity of preparation by Zanu-PF, versus the lethargy of its opponents, relative to previous polls, the fact that Zanu-PF will romp to an emphatic victory overwhelmingly is certainly not in question," he said.
CCC sympathiser, Dr Phillan Zamchiya commenting on the Afro-barometer's Pre-Election Survey conceded that it is an early wake-up call for CCC
"The survey is not all rosy for the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) electoral prospects in the general election scheduled for 23 August 2023. There is of course a paradox in the Afro-barometer research as I unpack later.
"However, my view is that it is time for the CCC to collectively reflect and put all boots on the ground in order to turn the tide. This is a better approach because even if the survey turns out not to be a true reflection of political dynamics on the ground, the CCC would have increased its margin of victory come 23 August. In short, they would have lost nothing.
"An easier and self-soothing approach would be to bury one's head in the sand and continue with business as usual. This is dangerous because if the survey turns to be a true reflection of political dynamics on the ground, the CCC would have done nothing and lost everything with no room for correction till the 2028 general election," he said.
Dr Zamchiya added: "In a turn of voting trends, the survey shows a decline in support for the opposition and a surge in support for the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (Zanu-PF)".
"If presidential elections were to be held a day after the survey, the CCC leader would lose to the Zanu-PF leader. The survey signals that 27 percent of respondents would vote for Chamisa against 35 percent for Mnangagwa.
This means that the CCC leader's support base has decreased by 6 percent since June 2022. This marks the first decline in Chamisa's vote since he became leader of the opposition. When Chamisa took over from Tsvangirai, only 16 percent freely expressed intentions to vote for him but this had exponentially gone up to 33 percent by June 2022.
Also of significance is that Chamisa's vote used to be far ahead of his party but the gap has closed to 1 percent," he said.
He dismissed assertions by some media groups that the percentage of people who did not reveal their voting preferences are CCC supporters.
Source - The Herald
