Covid cases soar

The number of new daily Covid-19 infections rose rapidly last week, with new records set each day, and by Saturday there were 30 705 active cases, that is around one Zimbabwean in 490 had Covid-19, but more than 99 percent of these were recovering at home with only 260 in hospital.

And even looking at these 260 in hospital by Friday night, the Ministry of Health and Child Care listed just one in intensive care and 17 categorised as severe.

Of the rest seven had no symptoms and 235 had mild to moderate symptoms. Some of those with no symptoms or mild symptoms would be in hospital for other reasons, but were given a test, and some might need constant monitoring because they have serious underlying conditions or are very old or both.

Even the death rate, while rising, is very low compared to what could be expected in light of what we saw in previous serious spikes in infections.

Last week, between Sunday and Saturday, 26 deaths were recorded, along with 26 479 new cases. The number of deaths each day rose to six each on Friday and Saturday.

Yet if the present spike in infection followed trends in previous spikes in infection we would have been seeing 10 to 20 times as many deaths, and far more people in hospital.

But since the third wave of Covid-19 in the middle of the year we have now vaccinated 31,6 percent of all Zimbabweans aged 16 and over with both doses, and 42 percent of this age group have had at least the first dose.

Vaccination not only helps to prevent infections of the vaccinated, it also sharply reduces the chances of severe symptoms or death among the vaccinated.

The continuing dramatic rise in daily new infections last week saw these climbing to 2 555 on Monday, then four continuous days of new records: 4 031 on Tuesday, 4 996 on Wednesday, 5 189 on Thursday and 6 181 on Friday, before the number fell sharply to 3 004 on Saturday.

It needs to be remembered that recorded numbers do tend to fall at weekends when routine clerical functions can be put off until the new week.

The seven-day rolling average, which tends to iron out sudden surges and dips, was rising steadily all week and reached a new record of 3 783 on Saturday, well above the highest daily figure seen in the third wave.

With 165 002 Covid-19 infections recorded since the first early last year, the 31 166 new cases recorded in the past fortnight comprise almost 19 percent of the total.

But the 30 deaths in the same fortnight at just 0,6 percent of the 4 735 deaths. There is, however, a gap between a surge in infection and a surge in deaths, so the full effect of what has been seen over the last fortnight will only be apparent in the next fortnight.

Vaccinations are still lagging. Last week 168 505 doses were given, a drop on the not over-impressive 181 751 seen the week before. So by Saturday 2 966 892 had received both doses, around 19,78 of the total population of around 15 million and 31,6 percent of the 9,4 million aged 16 and over.

For first doses, the figures were 3 942 961 doses, or 26,29 of the total population or 42 percent of the 16s and over.

Bulawayo province leads the vaccination figures and with 49,2 percent of its 16s and over now fully vaccinated is shortly to reach the halfway mark.

With 56,9 percent of the over 16s in the province, which is basically just the City Bulawayo, there are a lot of people just waiting for the day for their second shot.

Matabeleland North is the other leading province. It does slightly better than Bulawayo with 57,4 percent of the 16s and over having had one shot but only 44,5 have gone on to the second shot.

The province's vaccination rate is driven by the exceptionally high Victoria Falls figures, where almost all adults are now vaccinated, and the strenuous efforts in the mining centres in Hwange district.

Matabeleland South lags its western neighbours a bit, although hardly anyone else, with 46,2 percent of the 16s and over having had their first shot and 35,4 percent their second. This puts the province in fourth place,

The other province sitting there amongst the western provinces in third place is Manicaland, at the other end of the country, with 49,6 percent with one shot and 37,1 percent of the 16s and over with both.

The other six provinces are all below average and not one has even reach 40 percent of the 16s and over having had one shot, although Harare City comes close with 39,1 percent and Midlands with 39,3 percent.

But Midlands has only 27,9 percent with both and while Harare City does better with 31,2 percent Harare province's totals are dragged down by the most dismal figures from Chitungwiza, although a lot of people from the smaller town were vaccinated in Harare where they work.