Opinion / Columnist
The rehabilitation of Robert Mugabe
11 May 2013 at 21:45hrs | Views
HE has been a schoolteacher, freedom fighter and political prisoner. He has gone from admired independence leader to despised autocrat. Now a life that spans nine decades could be about to add its least expected final chapter: the rehabilitation of Robert Mugabe.
The following scenario, once unthinkable, is now just conceivable. The Zimbabwean President will retain power in this year's elections through fair means of foul; the poll will be relatively peaceful and deemed "credible" by the west; then sanctions will be lifted against Mugabe and his inner circle, ushering him back in from the cold.
This coincides with a subtle shift in the mood music around Africa's oldest leader. Domestic political foes have praised him. He recently enjoyed cordial meetings with Andrew Young, special envoy of the US state department, and civil rights stalwart the Rev Jesse Jackson. A documentary film, 'Mugabe: Villain or Hero?' has won sympathetic audiences in London.
Most contentiously of all, researchers have begun to challenge the orthodoxy that Zimbabwe's land reform programme was an unmitigated disaster.
Even non-supporters believe this reassessment is a necessary corrective after years of demonization. "He was overtoxified in the first place," said Petina Gappah, a Harare-based writer, lawyer and fellow of the Open Society foundation. "This idea of Mugabe as Hitler? He's extremely charming and intelligent.
Over-toxified
"This idea of a mindless thug underestimates his intelligence. This cartoonish, caricatured Idi Amin figure fails to recognise his insidious effect on the country. If he didn't exist, they would have had to invent him."
Two currents are moving in 89-year-old Mugabe's favour for elections likely to take place in August or September. His Zanu PF party has allegedly helped itself to profits from the country's diamond fields and revitalised its support base with populist policies such as the indigenisation of foreign-owned companies.
No less importantly, the rival Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) is seen by many as having lost momentum and the moral high ground after entering a power-sharing agreement with Zanu PF after the last disputed election in 2008.
The MDC insists that it has made real achievements in government and retains groundswell support, but it is losing a crucial battle of perceptions. Recent opinion polls by Afrobarometer and Freedom House found the party trailing behind Zanu PF - a more attention-grabbing headline than questions about the data's reliability.
The MDC stands accused of the sins of incumbency, its leadership seduced by ministerial houses and luxury cars; the party has been forced to discipline some councillors for corruption. It has failed to heal a factional rift that could divide its support.
Leader Morgan Tsvangirai, who serves as prime minister in the unity government, has been criticised for becoming too close to Mugabe and for an unseemly run of sex scandals.
"I think he's been a total disaster," said one senior MDC figure, who did not wish to be named.
"He's let us all down. But the important thing to remember is the MDC is bigger than Morgan Tsvangirai."
Among the disenchanted who feel taken for granted is the country's second biggest teaching union, cause for alarm because the MDC grew out of the union movement and relies on it for support. Raymond Majongwe, secretary general of the 14,000-strong Progressive Teachers' Union, said: "I'm feeling seriously let down by the MDC. The MDC has done nothing for teachers.
Sins of incumbency
"The power-sharing agreement could be the undoing of the MDC leadership. They exposed their own naivety and appetite for opulence and extravagance. In four years the level of wealth these MDC guys have accumulated is shocking. If the MDC wins the election, fine, they can go ahead and loot the country like their predecessors."
But Zanu PF is unlikely to take any chances. It still dominates the broadcast media and its persecution of activists, journalists, lawyers and opposition figures. Serious questions remain over the legitimacy of the electoral roll and the potential for cheating, particularly after apparent anomalies in the recent constitutional referendum.
Civil society watchdogs predict that the party will resort to its old tricks of intimidating voters, but this time using a form of "smart terror" whereby the mere threat of violence is enough. "Shaking the matchbox," is how one opponent describes it.
A schoolteacher from Buhera district, who says he was abducted from his home and beaten after voting for the MDC in 2008, said: "There is a register of Zanu PF supporters and it is used to intimidate people. It is silent violence. People are being told what to do. Rehearsals are being held day and night over how this election is going to be rigged."
But after the bloodshed of 2008, in which the MDC says 253 people died and thousands were tortured, a low body count is likely to be hailed as progress by an outside world that may then turn a blind eye to other irregularities.
Gappah said: "There will be no violence this year; they don't need it. But I don't think it's possible to talk about the possibility of a free and fair election. A 'credible' election is the buzzword the diplomats use. The UK and US will accept a 'credible' one. It's very likely Mugabe will come away smelling of roses."
She compared the situation to Kenya, which this year "held a flawed election to fix another flawed election". The outcome was victory for Uhuru Kenyatta, who faces charges at the international criminal court of crimes against humanity. But the west was quick to laud Kenya for a peaceful process and seems determined not to allow the new president's past to get in the way of economic interests.
Britain's high commissioner to Kenya visited Harare recently and it seems likely that parallels of realpolitik are being drawn. Zanu PF was represented at a recent Friends of Zimbabwe meeting in London, while Mugabe has welcomed the re-engagement efforts initiated by the UK and the EU.
All this comes as one of the central pillars of the western critique of Mugabe's 33-year rule is under attack.
Re-engagement
In 2010, Prof Ian Scoones of Sussex University published a study that claimed the seizure of white-owned farms, which smashed food production a decade ago, had also bequeathed a positive spinoff in the form of thousands of small-scale black farmers.
It has been followed this year by a book, Zimbabwe Takes Back its Land, which concludes: "In the biggest land reform in Africa, 6,000 white farmers have been replaced by 245,000 Zimbabwean farmers. These are primarily ordinary poor people who have become more productive farmers." Agricultural production is now returning to its 1990s level, they argue.
The reappraisal is hotly disputed. The MDC says that Zanu PF cronies and supporters are the main beneficiaries, and the new farmers are still easily outnumbered by agricultural workers who lost their jobs – but the mere fact that land reform's consequences have moved from conventional wisdom to a debate worthy of airtime is another step towards making Mugabe's legacy less unpalatable.
Saviour Kasukuwere is the youth development, indigenisation and empowerment minister and a rising star in Zanu PF. He said: "We knew one day the chickens would come home to roost and now they have. The whole world realises that President Mugabe was right and the policy that Zanu PF embarked on was right."
Bristling with confidence, Kasukuwere claims the west now regrets supporting the MDC, which he dubs the "Movement for Dangerous Children". He continued: "They made a mistake in the first place, they backed a terrible horse. I think the first reaction was anger. The things that you do when you're angry, you always live to regret them.
"They had this view, 'Why is Mugabe taking the land? So let's look for something.' I think they should have sat down and had their faculties working and we should not be where we are. The best brains in this country did not join the MDC. That's why President Mugabe will confidently walk home with the trophy."
It is an arresting narrative that Zanu PF is naturally eager to promote, but whether Mugabe can complete the unlikely circle from liberation hero to authoritarian villain to redeemed father of the nation remains far from certain.
A civil society group, the Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition, notes that polling suggests a tight race that will go to a second round, in which Tsvangirai stands a better chance of building alliances.
McDonald Lewanika, director of the coalition, said: "When it comes to the crunch, the choice that faces people is clearly between two evils, but one much less than the other. It's unfortunate the choice will be that bad."
The following scenario, once unthinkable, is now just conceivable. The Zimbabwean President will retain power in this year's elections through fair means of foul; the poll will be relatively peaceful and deemed "credible" by the west; then sanctions will be lifted against Mugabe and his inner circle, ushering him back in from the cold.
This coincides with a subtle shift in the mood music around Africa's oldest leader. Domestic political foes have praised him. He recently enjoyed cordial meetings with Andrew Young, special envoy of the US state department, and civil rights stalwart the Rev Jesse Jackson. A documentary film, 'Mugabe: Villain or Hero?' has won sympathetic audiences in London.
Most contentiously of all, researchers have begun to challenge the orthodoxy that Zimbabwe's land reform programme was an unmitigated disaster.
Even non-supporters believe this reassessment is a necessary corrective after years of demonization. "He was overtoxified in the first place," said Petina Gappah, a Harare-based writer, lawyer and fellow of the Open Society foundation. "This idea of Mugabe as Hitler? He's extremely charming and intelligent.
Over-toxified
"This idea of a mindless thug underestimates his intelligence. This cartoonish, caricatured Idi Amin figure fails to recognise his insidious effect on the country. If he didn't exist, they would have had to invent him."
Two currents are moving in 89-year-old Mugabe's favour for elections likely to take place in August or September. His Zanu PF party has allegedly helped itself to profits from the country's diamond fields and revitalised its support base with populist policies such as the indigenisation of foreign-owned companies.
No less importantly, the rival Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) is seen by many as having lost momentum and the moral high ground after entering a power-sharing agreement with Zanu PF after the last disputed election in 2008.
The MDC insists that it has made real achievements in government and retains groundswell support, but it is losing a crucial battle of perceptions. Recent opinion polls by Afrobarometer and Freedom House found the party trailing behind Zanu PF - a more attention-grabbing headline than questions about the data's reliability.
The MDC stands accused of the sins of incumbency, its leadership seduced by ministerial houses and luxury cars; the party has been forced to discipline some councillors for corruption. It has failed to heal a factional rift that could divide its support.
Leader Morgan Tsvangirai, who serves as prime minister in the unity government, has been criticised for becoming too close to Mugabe and for an unseemly run of sex scandals.
"I think he's been a total disaster," said one senior MDC figure, who did not wish to be named.
"He's let us all down. But the important thing to remember is the MDC is bigger than Morgan Tsvangirai."
Among the disenchanted who feel taken for granted is the country's second biggest teaching union, cause for alarm because the MDC grew out of the union movement and relies on it for support. Raymond Majongwe, secretary general of the 14,000-strong Progressive Teachers' Union, said: "I'm feeling seriously let down by the MDC. The MDC has done nothing for teachers.
Sins of incumbency
"The power-sharing agreement could be the undoing of the MDC leadership. They exposed their own naivety and appetite for opulence and extravagance. In four years the level of wealth these MDC guys have accumulated is shocking. If the MDC wins the election, fine, they can go ahead and loot the country like their predecessors."
But Zanu PF is unlikely to take any chances. It still dominates the broadcast media and its persecution of activists, journalists, lawyers and opposition figures. Serious questions remain over the legitimacy of the electoral roll and the potential for cheating, particularly after apparent anomalies in the recent constitutional referendum.
Civil society watchdogs predict that the party will resort to its old tricks of intimidating voters, but this time using a form of "smart terror" whereby the mere threat of violence is enough. "Shaking the matchbox," is how one opponent describes it.
A schoolteacher from Buhera district, who says he was abducted from his home and beaten after voting for the MDC in 2008, said: "There is a register of Zanu PF supporters and it is used to intimidate people. It is silent violence. People are being told what to do. Rehearsals are being held day and night over how this election is going to be rigged."
But after the bloodshed of 2008, in which the MDC says 253 people died and thousands were tortured, a low body count is likely to be hailed as progress by an outside world that may then turn a blind eye to other irregularities.
Gappah said: "There will be no violence this year; they don't need it. But I don't think it's possible to talk about the possibility of a free and fair election. A 'credible' election is the buzzword the diplomats use. The UK and US will accept a 'credible' one. It's very likely Mugabe will come away smelling of roses."
She compared the situation to Kenya, which this year "held a flawed election to fix another flawed election". The outcome was victory for Uhuru Kenyatta, who faces charges at the international criminal court of crimes against humanity. But the west was quick to laud Kenya for a peaceful process and seems determined not to allow the new president's past to get in the way of economic interests.
Britain's high commissioner to Kenya visited Harare recently and it seems likely that parallels of realpolitik are being drawn. Zanu PF was represented at a recent Friends of Zimbabwe meeting in London, while Mugabe has welcomed the re-engagement efforts initiated by the UK and the EU.
All this comes as one of the central pillars of the western critique of Mugabe's 33-year rule is under attack.
Re-engagement
In 2010, Prof Ian Scoones of Sussex University published a study that claimed the seizure of white-owned farms, which smashed food production a decade ago, had also bequeathed a positive spinoff in the form of thousands of small-scale black farmers.
It has been followed this year by a book, Zimbabwe Takes Back its Land, which concludes: "In the biggest land reform in Africa, 6,000 white farmers have been replaced by 245,000 Zimbabwean farmers. These are primarily ordinary poor people who have become more productive farmers." Agricultural production is now returning to its 1990s level, they argue.
The reappraisal is hotly disputed. The MDC says that Zanu PF cronies and supporters are the main beneficiaries, and the new farmers are still easily outnumbered by agricultural workers who lost their jobs – but the mere fact that land reform's consequences have moved from conventional wisdom to a debate worthy of airtime is another step towards making Mugabe's legacy less unpalatable.
Saviour Kasukuwere is the youth development, indigenisation and empowerment minister and a rising star in Zanu PF. He said: "We knew one day the chickens would come home to roost and now they have. The whole world realises that President Mugabe was right and the policy that Zanu PF embarked on was right."
Bristling with confidence, Kasukuwere claims the west now regrets supporting the MDC, which he dubs the "Movement for Dangerous Children". He continued: "They made a mistake in the first place, they backed a terrible horse. I think the first reaction was anger. The things that you do when you're angry, you always live to regret them.
"They had this view, 'Why is Mugabe taking the land? So let's look for something.' I think they should have sat down and had their faculties working and we should not be where we are. The best brains in this country did not join the MDC. That's why President Mugabe will confidently walk home with the trophy."
It is an arresting narrative that Zanu PF is naturally eager to promote, but whether Mugabe can complete the unlikely circle from liberation hero to authoritarian villain to redeemed father of the nation remains far from certain.
A civil society group, the Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition, notes that polling suggests a tight race that will go to a second round, in which Tsvangirai stands a better chance of building alliances.
McDonald Lewanika, director of the coalition, said: "When it comes to the crunch, the choice that faces people is clearly between two evils, but one much less than the other. It's unfortunate the choice will be that bad."
Source - The Guardian
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