Swapo wins special elections in the diaspora

Unofficial results of votes cast by Namibians in the diaspora on Wednesday show Swapo leading with 61% of the presidential and 61% of the parliamentary votes.

The Independent Patriots for Change (IPC) received 33% of the presidential vote and 27% for parliament.

The AR party performed well compared to other parties, securing 12% of the parliamentary votes and 6% of the presidential votes.

Other parties, such as the Popular Democratic Movement (PDM) and the Landless People's Movement (LPM), received fewer votes.

In the United Kingdom, where the IPC is believed to have a stronghold, it won by only a margin of 10 votes over Swapo. The IPC also performed well in Cape Town, South Africa, while Swapo led many diplomatic missions.

Political analyst, Sakaria Johannes said the results are not shocking except for the performance of AR.

"These results are not shocking much except for the AR performance. However, we cannot say much about the results as far as the 27 of November is concerned. People in the diaspora are mostly delegates and students," he said

Johannes mentioned that those who voted abroad might not be affected by the situation in their home country.

"In many cases, people vote according to how they feel and see things. Yes, it gives a green light to the Swapo party and AR which means these two parties might perform the same way come the 27 of November," he emphasised.

Johannes believes Swapo will emerge victorious, followed by IPC in second place and AR in third.

Political analyst Ndumba Kamwanyah said the special voting results do hint at a close race, with Swapo, IPC, and AR performing strongly.

However, he stated the votes for special elections are only a small sample.

"Keep in mind, these votes are only a small sample, often favouring the ruling party because of government-affiliated voters like diplomats, military, and police. The full picture on the 27th may differ, as it will include a much larger, more diverse set of voters, which could change the dynamics significantly," Kamanyah said.

He also said opposition alliances could bring defeat to Swapo easily.

"A united front could certainly make it easier to challenge Swapo's dominance. By combining their strengths, opposition parties could better compete and attract undecided voters looking for change," he added.

At the same time, Kamwanya mentioned that the success of an alliance would depend on clear, unified goals that resonate with the public.

Graham Hopwood, the Executive Director of the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) said such a result is small for commenting.

"I'm hesitant to comment – It's not enough votes to be able to offer meaningful analysis. We'll have to wait for the results after Nov 27," he said.

AR leader Job Amupanda expressed his satisfaction with the party's election campaign so far.

He also expressed his joy with the results on his social media platform on Thursday.

Amupanda believes AR will overtake Swapo and IPC at the general elections.

"So far we are happy with our campaigns. We will increase the speed and work hard to overtake the two elders who are temporarily ahead of us in this warm-up," he said.