Mnangagwa's coup-proofing strategy

President Emmerson Mnangagwa's political strategy is increasingly defined by one overriding imperative: survival. Having orchestrated the 2017 coup that ousted Robert Mugabe, survived covert threats in 2019, and now facing renewed unease within Zanu-PF, Mnangagwa is meticulously reconfiguring Zimbabwe's military command structure and doling out patronage to ensure loyalty.

Yesterday's distribution of over 100 vehicles to the Zimbabwe Defence Forces (ZDF) - part of a broader programme that will see 700 vehicles delivered - underscores a long-standing pattern of coup-proofing. “The vehicles I'm commissioning today are under the first phase of a comprehensive programme…towards enhancing mobility across the rank and file of the ZDF,” Mnangagwa explained, framing the gesture as a service improvement. Observers, however, see it as a classic tool for political insurance in a country where the army remains the ultimate arbiter of power.

Since taking power in 2017, Mnangagwa has systematically reshuffled the army: removing some high-ranking commanders, sidelining others, promoting loyalists, and frequently rotating officers to prevent the consolidation of independent power bases. The sudden removal of Lieutenant-General Anselem Sanyatwe as Zimbabwe National Army commander in March 2025, and his redeployment as Minister of Sports, Arts and Culture, illustrates how swiftly Mnangagwa acts to neutralize potential threats. Under Mugabe, Zimbabwe had one army commander for 14 years; under Mnangagwa, five commanders have cycled through in just eight years.

At the heart of these moves is the escalating succession battle with Vice President Constantino Chiwenga, a former army general whose decades-long tenure in the military gave him unparalleled leverage over the armed forces. Chiwenga, instrumental in the 2017 coup, retains networks and influence that could challenge Mnangagwa's authority. The Zanu-PF annual conference in Mutare next month, while non-elective, is expected to shape the succession dynamics, with Mnangagwa's allies hoping to cement a resolution allowing him to extend his rule beyond 2028, paving the way for a potential third term.

Mnangagwa's coup-proofing strategy is multifaceted. Patronage plays a central role: luxury cars, financial incentives, and preferential treatment for loyal commanders are used to secure allegiance. Ethnic and factional considerations are also leveraged, with key positions filled by individuals loyal to the president, sometimes at the expense of merit and operational efficiency. Simultaneously, parallel security structures, such as the presidential guard, create counterbalances to regular army units, further fragmenting power within the military.

Professional military norms are often subordinated to political imperatives. Officers are indoctrinated with nationalist rhetoric, emphasizing the sanctity of the Republic and the primacy of civilian control, while communications and internal coordination are tightly controlled to prevent organized dissent. The blending of party, state, and military structures ensures that loyalty is rewarded, while dissent carries significant risk.

These measures, however, come at a cost. Frequent rotations, patronage-driven promotions, and the politicization of command erode military professionalism. Yet, for Mnangagwa, the calculus is clear: without firm control over the armed forces, Zanu-PF's hold on power could collapse. Zimbabwe's political survival, in the post-liberation era, remains inseparable from military support - a reality Mnangagwa understands acutely and acts upon relentlessly.

Yesterday's vehicle handover is more than a logistical upgrade; it is a tangible manifestation of a broader, calculated effort to secure the presidency. By combining patronage, institutional manipulation, and strategic removals, Mnangagwa continues the art of coup-proofing that has defined his tenure - a strategy rooted in history, informed by past crises, and aimed at safeguarding both his authority and the party's grip on Zimbabwe.