Elections expose Sadc ruling parties

Recent elections across Southern Africa have revealed a growing challenge for ruling parties, especially those that evolved from former liberation movements, as they struggle to maintain their grip on power. Opposition parties have made significant inroads in countries like Zambia, Malawi, Botswana, and Mauritius, while South Africa's African National Congress (ANC) found itself forced into a power-sharing agreement after losing its parliamentary majority for the first time since 1994. In Mozambique, the ruling Frelimo party is fighting to regain the electorate's trust after a tumultuous election result triggered deadly protests.

This wave of political change has raised questions about the future of long-standing liberation movements that have dominated the region since the end of colonial rule. Analysts point to a growing restlessness among younger generations and increasing dissatisfaction with governments that have failed to fulfill their promises.

A Shifting Tide Across Southern Africa

Political observers have noted that in recent years, ruling parties in Southern Africa have seen a steady decline in their share of the popular vote. "Look at the performance of the ruling parties in the last three elections; all have been losing ground," said one observer. "On the basis of this trend, you can anticipate what the future holds for non-performing parties in power. Let's see what happens in Namibia this November."

Vivid Gwede, a political analyst, explained that the decline in support for liberation movements in the region can be attributed to several factors, including poor governance, prolonged time in power, and failure to meet citizens' expectations. "Some have been in power for too long, and others have not been performing well in government. Those that have not lost elections have lost two-thirds majorities," Gwede said, referencing countries like South Africa, Angola, Namibia, and Zimbabwe.

While some liberation parties, such as those in South Africa and Angola, have been able to hold democratic elections and transfer power peacefully, others have resorted to political violence and disputes, as seen in Zimbabwe and Mozambique.

Youth and the 'Demographic Dividend'

Maxwell Saungweme, a renowned political analyst, believes the political shift in Africa is driven by the growing engagement of younger generations. "With a rapidly growing, politically engaged youth population, the ‘demographic dividend' is becoming a driver of change," Saungweme said. He explained that as trust in institutions erodes, the demand for accountable, responsive leadership increases, leading to greater political pluralism.

This shift aligns with the theory of "third wave" democratization, where popular demands for reform challenge entrenched regimes. As young people demand more representation, the political landscape is evolving across the continent.

Unique National Contexts

However, Stephen Chan, a professor of world politics at the University of London's School of Oriental and African Studies, cautioned that the situation in each country is different. "The former government in Botswana was never run by a liberation party. There was no struggle for liberation there. The liberation party is extremely strong, even if highly corrupt, in Angola," Chan said. "Mozambique's liberation party has resorted to fraud and violence to remain in power."

Chan believes the true test of this regional trend will be the upcoming elections in Namibia, a sparsely populated country that gained independence under a liberation party. The results could indicate whether the declining influence of liberation movements is a wider regional phenomenon or a series of isolated incidents.

Economic Failures and Power Retention Tactics

Piers Pigou, Southern Africa programme head at the Institute for Security Studies, pointed to economic challenges as a key factor behind the decline in support for liberation movements. "Declining levels of support are evident in most instances, although responses to these challenges vary," Pigou said. He explained that the failure to deliver broad-based wealth creation and inclusive economic growth has diminished public confidence in many ruling parties.

Pigou also highlighted the varying strategies employed by ruling parties to retain power. While some, like the ANC in South Africa and the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), have accepted their election losses, others have resorted to manipulating the political system to maintain their hold on power. Allegations of electoral fraud, rigging, and corruption have plagued elections in countries like Angola, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique, raising questions about the legitimacy of the election processes.

As Southern Africa faces a future of political transition, observers believe that the region's political landscape will continue to evolve. The struggles of former liberation movements to retain power, combined with the demands of a younger, more politically active population, could lead to greater democratic pluralism in the coming years. However, the path forward remains fraught with challenges, as the region grapples with the realities of democratic consolidation, political violence, and governance reform.