Super El Nino could halve Zimbabwe's 2027 economic growth

Zimbabwe's economic growth could face a major setback if a projected Super El Nino weather phenomenon materialises, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warning that a severe drought could halve the country's 2027 growth forecast.

The IMF has projected real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5 percent for Zimbabwe this year, with growth expected to moderate to 4,2 percent over the medium term, supported largely by agriculture and mining.

However, the global lender warned that a stronger-than-expected El Niño during the 2026/27 agricultural season could cut its 2027 growth projection by half.

The shock would also place pressure on Government finances by reducing revenue while increasing spending requirements.

The warning comes as Zimbabwe continues to recover from the devastating 2024 drought, which was linked to another strong El Niño weather pattern.

The economy rebounded sharply in 2025, with real GDP growth reaching 8,3 percent, up from 1,7 percent in 2024.

The recovery was driven largely by improved agricultural production, strong mining activity and elevated gold prices.

Agriculture is particularly important to Zimbabwe's economic outlook because its performance has far-reaching effects on household incomes, food security, trade, Government revenue and economic activity in sectors such as transport, manufacturing and retail.

"Agriculture remains at the centre of Zimbabwe's development story. A good season not only improves food security but stimulates activity throughout the economy, from transport and logistics to agro-processing and retail trade," agronomist Pamela Macheka said.

The IMF said a drought triggered by a severe El Nino could significantly reduce agricultural output and hydropower generation.

Lower crop production would increase food insecurity and force Zimbabwe to raise imports, while reduced economic activity would put additional pressure on both fiscal and external balances.

The impact could extend beyond agriculture, with lower household incomes and reduced disposable income weighing on consumption and demand across the wider economy.

Hydropower generation could also be affected by reduced water levels, potentially increasing the need for alternative and more expensive sources of electricity.

The IMF said the potential climate shock would come at a time when Zimbabwe is already exposed to other external risks.

These include a possible escalation of conflict in the Middle East, which could keep global energy and fertiliser prices elevated, disrupt international shipping and weaken external demand.

Higher fertiliser and fuel costs could further increase production expenses for Zimbabwean farmers, while elevated energy prices could place additional pressure on businesses and consumers.

The latest warning highlights the vulnerability of Zimbabwe's economic recovery to climatic shocks, particularly given the significant contribution of agriculture to national output and livelihoods.

A severe drought in the 2026/27 season would therefore risk reversing some of the gains recorded following the strong agricultural recovery of 2025, while simultaneously increasing pressure on Government finances and the country's import bill.