Grace Mugabe's dirty tricks could hurt Mugabe

In two weeks, President Robert Mugabe's Zanu-PF holds its elective congress, but early signs are that the watershed indaba may result not only in high-profile political casualties, but an outcome that could set in motion the decline of the party that has been at the heart of Zimbabwean politics for 34 years.

Leaders of two factions are in the final lap to position themselves to succeed Mugabe, 90, whose age and failing health cast doubt on his ability to remain in power much longer.

The jostling is between the group led by Joice Mujuru, Mugabe's deputy in government and in the party, and that led by Minister of Justice, Legal and Parliamentary Affairs Emmerson Mnangagwa, thought to have the support of the military for his presidential bid.

It had seemed inevitable that Mujuru would take over from Mugabe, but this has become increasingly uncertain, especially with the entry of First Lady Grace Mugabe into mainstream politics.

Grace had been keeping out of the political limelight, juggling her roles as a dairy farmer, educationist, and caregiver to her ailing husband.

All that changed when the Zanu-PF Women's League nominated her in August to take over as its leader from Oppah Muchinguri, who at the last elective congress, in December 2009, unsuccessfully challenged Mujuru for the vice-presidency.

Although Grace acknowledged in her acceptance speech that she was "a political novice" and would need guidance and help, she has been unusually militant and has openly criticised Mujuru

"My time has come to show people what I am made of," Grace told women's league members.

"I might have a small fist, but when it comes to fighting, I will put stones inside it to enlarge it, or even put on gloves to make it bigger.

"Do not doubt my capabilities."

At 10 rallies across the country last month, she called on Mujuru to step down as vice-president, accusing her of being a "liar", "incompetent" and "lazy" – claims that have given way in rapid succession to allegations of corruption, involvement in illicit diamond deals and tax evasion.

The allegations have provided fodder for the Mnangagwa faction, giving it an opportunity to drum up support for Mujuru's ouster and opening the door to its naming a candidate for the vice-presidency.

With open campaigning for positions barred in Zanu-PF, party hopefuls have to burn the midnight oil covertly canvassing for support from the 10 provinces that nominate candidates.

Mujuru is one of only two people who have been in every cabinet led by Mugabe since independence in 1980.

The other is Sydney Sekeramayi, the defence minister, whose name has also been bandied about as a potential successor to Mugabe, although he has less clout.

It is not only Mujuru's vast experience in government over more than three decades that has worked in her favour as she eyes the presidency, but that she cut her teeth in the war of liberation – a criterion for Zimbabwe's leaders.

She was known by her nom de guerre, Teurai Ropa (Spill Blood). Her husband, Solomon "Rex Nhongo" Mujuru, a decorated former army commander who died in August 2011 in an unexplained farmhouse inferno, was instrumental in her rise to the vice-presidency in December 2004.

A clause adopted in the run-up to the 2004 congress by Zanu-PF's highest decision-making body, the politburo – that a woman should occupy the vice-president's post – was put forward by Mujuru and sealed his wife's rise.

Since Mujuru's elevation 10 years ago, Mnangagwa has had to play second fiddle to her.

Crucially, he has been able to forge key relationships with the military, especially while he was defence minister in the power- sharing government with the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) established in February 2009.

He represented Mugabe as his chief election officer in the 2008 elections, a role viewed by observers as an attempt to endear himself to the veteran leader.

Despite the discontent swirling around Mujuru, it is unclear who will challenge her at the congress.

Even Mnangagwa is keeping his cards close to his chest.

Mugabe, who had been silent as the allegations were flung at Mujuru, had to step in last weekend to try to restore calm in the party.

He called on those seeking Mujuru's removal to wait for the congress, sparking concern that it might mark the end for the 59-year-old.

Party insiders said Mugabe "was fed up" with Mujuru's growing power base, which had been playing a part in the succession fights.

Mugabe told party supporters who besieged Zanu-PF's headquarters in Harare before a politburo meeting two weeks ago that the party had its way of doing things. Party processes would be followed.

"You cannot tell your wife to leave on the very day you break up. Those who don't like you will not vote for you come congress," he said.

Zimbabwe's biggest weekly, the state-owned Sunday Mail, alleged last week that Mujuru was involved in a plot to assassinate Mugabe. It cited a voice recording and reported comments as evidence, but it did not attribute the information to security officials or other sources.

Mujuru denied the allegations on Monday and has instructed her legal team to take action against the newspaper.

The paper alleged that Labour Minister Nicholas Goche was a co-conspirator and had met "potential hitmen" in South Africa and Israel.

Grace upped the ante against Mujuru this week, claiming there was a secret recording in which Mujuru denigrated Mugabe's leadership, made comments showing she was plotting Mugabe's removal and expressed her dislike for the first lady.

On the occasion that the comments were recorded, Mujuru was wearing a mini-skirt, Grace claimed. "She was inappropriately dressed… We chose her to represent our interests, but she has failed. We've had enough of this stupidity… If she thinks things are going to go otherwise, she is day-dreaming."

Piers Pigou, Southern African director of the International Crisis Group in Joburg, says the instability in Zanu-PF points to a Mugabe who is finding it increasingly difficult to contain the succession battles.

"There have been differences in the party before. However, what is noteworthy is that the ability to keep things together has been eroded. It reflects on Mugabe's waning powers. He is still a key in Zanu-PF politics but is not the key player any longer," said Pigou.

"What is clear is that Zanu-PF will not be the same again after December. A lot of damage has been done and much of the blame must rest squarely on Mugabe, who is the progenitor of many of the problems.

"Now his ability to be the glue that holds everything together is waning rapidly," said Pigou.

Rashweat Mukundu, chairman of the Zimbabwe Democracy Institute, said Mugabe's stay in power had been anchored in a divide-and-rule strategy. The ructions in Zanu-PF would reinforce his refusal to step down on grounds that the party still needed him.

"He will not dismiss Mujuru and may even retain her at congress. The strategy is to keep everyone guessing and off-balance. No one must gain a sound footing to challenge him," said Mukundu.

Khanyile Mlotshwa, a Zimbabwean academic and political commentator at Rhodes University, said Mugabe was at his wits' end, reduced to the role of helpless bystander as he watched events unfolding in his party.

"He is also looking forward to the congress to help him with answers to this problem. This is when he realises that, contrary to the rhetoric in the party that makes him seem like some god, Zanu-PF is bigger than individuals, especially him.

"He cannot move on Mujuru because he is also paralysed," Mlotshwa said.

But Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Christopher Mutsvangwa, a former liberation fighter, said the congress would strengthen the party's ranks as members would have the chance to rally behind Mugabe, who won the elections last year.

"The party's 10 provinces have indicated that they have endorsed the president (for re-election) as the party's leader at the elective congress. This congress is about the president outlining his economic vision under the banner of the Zimbabwe Agenda for Socio-Sustainable Economic Transformation, and not succession," said Mutsvangwa.

Mujuru faction's grip was severely weakened on Thursday when the politburo purged senior party officials who supported her.

The purge included the suspension of party spokesman Rugare Gumbo and the expulsion of militant war veterans leader Jabulani Sibanda.

The politburo also confirmed the expulsion of provincial chairmen aligned to Mujuru who in the preceding few weeks had been the subjects of successful "votes of no-confidence".

They included Temba Mliswa, Ray Kaukonde, Constance Shamu, Killian Gwanetsa, Amos Midzi and Andrew Langa.

Langa, chairman of the party's Matabeleland South province, has vowed to fight his expulsion.

Whatever happens, the fragmentation of Zanu-PF during Mugabe's sunset years and before his very eyes is an indictment of the legacy of a victory over imperialism that he has carefully built in a political career spanning nearly five decades.

One of Africa's last strongmen – who has dedicated his entire life and resources to resisting not only sanctions, but imminent economic collapse in his country, the threat of a new opposition party in the form of the MDC and condemning the West at any given opportunity – may yet fall victim to the vicious dynamics of succession that he has for so long swept under the carpet.

 -----------------
*Ndlovu is a senior journalist in Bulawayo for The Financial Gazette, the leading business weekly in Zimbabwe.
** The views expressed here are not necessarily those of Independent Media.