Madlanga commission will lead to the early exit of Ramaphosa as president

The Madlanga commission is likely to have a much more substantial impact on the country's political landscape than all the others held since the end of apartheid. It is likely to bring down ANC leaders, cause the party's support to plunge to 20% in next year's local government elections and potentially lead to the early exit of Cyril Ramaphosa as ANC and South African president.

Though the Zondo commission was widely seen as an inquiry into the ANC, with Ramaphosa admitting the party stood accused of corruption, it is in fact the Madlanga commission that will uncover the truth about the liberation behemoth.

The ANC's control of the police, through its deployment of police ministers that serve the party's interests rather than those of the public, as well as its past appointment of national police commissioners who were cadres rather than professional police officers, allowed the party to control investigations into its senior ranks.

Competition to become ANC public representatives has increasingly become based on slates, where even local candidates are elected in alignment with those for national leadership. But the various slates, especially at the local level, often result in the violent elimination of opposing candidates, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal. The political killings task team (PKTT) investigated many of these alleged ANC political assassinations.

An ANC faction controlling a particular municipality, province or ministry often awards tenders to businesses linked to it. In many cases, competing factions violently eliminate potential rival contractors. The PKTT investigated such killings as well. It is therefore no surprise that many ANC leaders wanted to close down the PKTT, just as the party scuppered the Scorpions in 2009.

Past inquiries, such as the Zondo commission, were established so the government would be seen to be doing something about graft. They had little impact on the ANC and its leaders, even if they were implicated in wrongdoing.

It is likely Ramaphosa and the ANC thought the Madlanga commission would be a means to kick allegations of wrongdoing into the long grass.

Ramaphosa has in the past publicly stated his priority is to ensure the unity of the ANC. Senzo Mchunu is a crucial member of the Ramaphosa faction in the ANC, as well as being an important figure in KwaZulu-Natal, where the ANC is not only deeply divided by pro- and anti-Ramaphosa sentiment but also faces tough competition in next year's local government elections from the MKP led by Jacob Zuma.

The difference between the Madlanga commission and the others that preceded it is that, for the first time, a senior government official, KwaZulu-Natal provincial police commissioner Lt-Gen Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi, played a crucial role in pushing for the inquiry, has evidence in his possession and is willing to make that information public.

Other commissions often relied on more lowly whistleblowers, as well as those still in the government's employ, to present evidence — and these officials did so carefully, without endangering their careers or lives. Making public allegations of wrongdoing against powerful ANC and government leaders, not to mention criminal and BEE syndicates, is career-destroying and potentially life-threatening. Powerful ANC and government officials could use the state security, revenue and intelligence services to tarnish the reputations of these individuals.

And presentations made to previous commissions often did not have enough hard evidence.

Mkhwanazi and the senior police officers testifying at the Madlanga commission are experienced police officers, better able to deal with security threats - whether from rogue ANC leaders or criminal syndicates — than ordinary whistleblowers.

The information that will come out of the Madlanga commission is likely to pit ANC leaders and factions against each other, as well as widen factional divisions in the party, and may even determine who becomes ANC president after Ramaphosa.

The Madlanga commission is also likely to accelerate the decline of the ANC. The revelations may detrimentally affect the ANC's electoral support to such an extent that the party loses next year's local government elections.

In the years to come, ANC leaders and Ramaphosa may look back at the Madlanga commission and ruefully conclude it would have been better if Senzo Mchunu had simply been fired as police minister after he was accused by Mkhwanazi of political interference, as the consequences for the party would probably have been less severe had this course of action been adopted.

----------------William Gumede established the Democracy Works Foundation and is the author of Restless Nation: Making Sense of Troubled Times (Tafelberg)