Opinion / Columnist
Unless Zimbabwe army takes to the streets, there will be no protest
2 hrs ago |
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Zimbabweans have been urged to take to the streets on Friday in protest against President Emmerson Mnangagwa and his allies by war veteran Blessed Geza, who is reportedly aligned with Vice President General Constantino Chiwenga.
My view is that unless the army and its soldiers themselves take to the streets, there will be no protest at all.
Zimbabweans still carry the dark memories of what happened on the 1st of August 2018, when unarmed citizens were gunned down by the military using live ammunition.
I remember saying at the time that this brutal act would have long-term repercussions until someone had the courage to break that cycle.
Since that tragic day in August 2018, nothing has changed. In fact, in January 2019, more Zimbabweans were killed during protests against a fuel price hike after the government shut down the internet.
So I view Friday's call for protests as more of an intention or a wish to be in the streets, rather than a realistic expectation. My analytical lens tells me that there will be no significant turnout unless the soldiers themselves provide a guarantee of safety by joining or protecting the demonstrators.
There is also the issue of police clearance, which ZANU-PF has always used as a tool to suppress dissent. Protests in Zimbabwe are rarely allowed to happen unless the police give the green light, which is unconstitutional.
Ironically, some of the very people who once supported such repression are now victims of the same system, caught in the middle of ZANU-PF's internal factional battles.
So, we wait to see what happens on Friday. But based on history and the political climate, my view remains that nothing significant will occur unless the military is involved. Friday will likely pass as just another ordinary day in Zimbabwe.
Unless the soldiers themselves take to the streets, Friday's protest will remain a wish, not a revolution.
As I have said over the past six months, Vice President Chiwenga's path to the presidency has been politically sealed.
The only remaining avenue for him to revive even the faintest hope of succeeding Mnangagwa lies within the military. If the army does not intervene, his presidential ambitions are effectively over.
My view is that unless the army and its soldiers themselves take to the streets, there will be no protest at all.
Zimbabweans still carry the dark memories of what happened on the 1st of August 2018, when unarmed citizens were gunned down by the military using live ammunition.
I remember saying at the time that this brutal act would have long-term repercussions until someone had the courage to break that cycle.
Since that tragic day in August 2018, nothing has changed. In fact, in January 2019, more Zimbabweans were killed during protests against a fuel price hike after the government shut down the internet.
So I view Friday's call for protests as more of an intention or a wish to be in the streets, rather than a realistic expectation. My analytical lens tells me that there will be no significant turnout unless the soldiers themselves provide a guarantee of safety by joining or protecting the demonstrators.
Ironically, some of the very people who once supported such repression are now victims of the same system, caught in the middle of ZANU-PF's internal factional battles.
So, we wait to see what happens on Friday. But based on history and the political climate, my view remains that nothing significant will occur unless the military is involved. Friday will likely pass as just another ordinary day in Zimbabwe.
Unless the soldiers themselves take to the streets, Friday's protest will remain a wish, not a revolution.
As I have said over the past six months, Vice President Chiwenga's path to the presidency has been politically sealed.
The only remaining avenue for him to revive even the faintest hope of succeeding Mnangagwa lies within the military. If the army does not intervene, his presidential ambitions are effectively over.
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