Zimbabwe exorbitant fuel price hikes expose ethanol blending as nothing more than a get-rich-quick scheme

The most effective con relies on a simple trick: making the victim believe they are the one benefiting.

The recent spike in fuel prices across Zimbabwe has once again laid bare the structural rot within our energy sector. 

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While the authorities are quick to point towards volatile international markets and recurring instability in the Middle East as the primary culprits for the hole in the pockets of motorists, a more sinister reality exists closer to home. 

It is a reality fermented in the vast sugarcane plantations of Chiredzi and bottled in Chisumbanje under the guise of national interest. 

For years, the Zimbabwean government has force-fed the nation a narrative that mandatory ethanol blending is a panacea for our foreign currency woes and a shield against global price shocks. 

However, the current reality of Zimbabwe boasting some of the most expensive fuel in the Southern African region exposes this claim as nothing more than a carefully constructed fallacy designed to protect narrow interests at the expense of the struggling masses.

The government's decision some years ago to effectively ban the sale of unleaded fuel in favor of a mandatory blend was the first signal that this policy was never about consumer choice or economic efficiency. 

By removing the option for motorists to choose unblended petrol, the state created a captive market. 

This was not a move driven by environmental concerns or a sudden shift toward green energy. 

Instead, it was a calculated maneuver to ensure a guaranteed stream of revenue for a single entity. 

The rhetoric used to justify this monopoly was draped in the flag of sovereignty and import substitution. 

We were told that by blending our petrol with locally produced ethanol, we would reduce our reliance on foreign oil, save precious foreign currency, and create local jobs. 

On the surface, these goals seem noble, yet the mathematical reality of the pump price tells a radically different story.

One of the most glaring contradictions in the government narrative is the impact of global geopolitics on a supposedly localized product. 

When tensions flare in the Middle East and global crude prices rise, the Zimbabwean authorities are the first to adjust the pump price upward. 

This is expected for the petrol component of the blend, which is imported. 

However, what remains unexplained and indefensible is why the ethanol component, which makes up twenty percent of every liter of E20, remains so exorbitantly priced. 

Ethanol is produced locally from sugarcane in the Lowveld. 

Its production process is not tied to the Strait of Hormuz or the whims of OPEC. 

The fermentation and distillation of sugarcane in Chisumbanje should, in theory, provide a stable and lower-cost buffer against international volatility. 

Instead, the domestic price of ethanol from Green Fuel Ltd has consistently tracked, and often exceeded, the landed cost of imported petrol.  

When we analyze the Free On Board (FOB) price of petrol at the port of Beira—which sits at approximately $1.09 per liter—and compare it to the unit price of ethanol supplied by Green Fuel at $1.10 per liter, the deception becomes clear. 

It is a staggering economic irony that it would actually be cheaper for Zimbabwe to import pure, unblended petrol and sell it to motorists than it is to mix it with locally produced ethanol. 

Global fuel ethanol prices generally range between $0.50 and $0.70 per liter as of late 2025/early 2026.

Key benchmarks include FOB Gulf prices around $0.50 per liter and Brazilian FOB Santos prices at roughly $0.56–$0.60 per liter.

The logic of blending is supposed to be that the cheaper additive brings down the overall cost of the final product. 

In Zimbabwe, the opposite is true. 

Ethanol has become a bloating agent that inflates the price of fuel. 

We are essentially paying a premium for a domestic product that is marketed as a cost-saving measure. 

This suggests that the pricing structure of ethanol is not determined by the cost of production or market forces, but rather by a desire to maximize profit for a private monopoly at the total expense of the Zimbabwean economy.

This brings us to the myth of foreign currency savings. 

The government has long argued that ethanol blending saves millions of dollars in foreign exchange every month. 

This argument holds water only if the local supplier is being paid in the local currency, the ZiG, at rates that reflect its actual market value. 

However, there is a deep and justified suspicion that Green Fuel Ltd is not being paid in ZiG for its product. 

If the sole supplier of ethanol is demanding payment in United States dollars, then the claim of saving foreign currency is a complete fabrication. 

We are merely shifting the outflow of hard currency from foreign oil companies to a domestic private entity. 

If the country is still bleeding foreign currency to pay for a product grown and processed on our own soil, then the entire rationale for mandatory blending collapses. 

We are not saving foreign exchange; we are simply redirecting it into the pockets of a well-connected individual.

The human cost of this policy is immense. 

Zimbabwe now consistently ranks as having the most expensive fuel in the SADC region, with prices hitting an astronomical $2.17 per liter. 

High fuel prices are the primary driver of inflation in any modern economy. 

When the cost of transport rises, the cost of bread, milk, and basic services follows suit. 

Every Zimbabwean, whether they own a vehicle or not, is paying a "blending tax" every single day. 

The small-scale trader trying to move goods to market, the commuter struggling with rising fares, and the manufacturer trying to remain competitive are all being choked by a fuel policy that serves the few. 

The government's insistence on maintaining this status quo, despite the obvious economic damage, points to a system of crony capitalism where policy is crafted to benefit a single billionaire, Billy Rautenbach, rather than the millions of citizens the state is sworn to protect.  

The monopoly held by Green Fuel Ltd is a textbook example of how the state can be used to facilitate wealth transfer from the public to the elite. 

By making it illegal to sell unblended fuel, the government eliminated any incentive for Green Fuel to be efficient or competitive. 

In a free market, if ethanol were more expensive than petrol, no fuel company would buy it, and no motorist would use it. 

The only way to sustain such an irrational economic model is through the brute force of legislation. 

This is not "development" or "industrialization" as the official state media would have us believe. 

It is the institutionalization of a shakedown.

We must also challenge the notion that this policy provides energy security. 

True energy security would involve a diversified energy mix and a competitive market that drives down costs and encourages innovation. 

Instead, Zimbabwe has tied its entire transport sector to the production capacity and pricing whims of one company. 

If there is a drought in the Lowveld or a technical failure at the Chisumbanje plant, the entire country is held hostage. 

We have traded the risks of the global oil market for the risks of a domestic monopoly, and we are paying a premium for the privilege.

The current exorbitant price hikes should serve as a final wake-up call for the Zimbabwean public and policy makers. 

The "benefits" of ethanol blending have been exposed as a hollow narrative. 

It does not lower prices, it does not reliably save foreign currency, and it does not protect us from international shocks. 

It is a parasitic arrangement that drains the pockets of the poor to line the pockets of the powerful. 

It is time to dismantle this mandatory blending regime and return to a system where unleaded fuel is available and affordable. 

If ethanol is as beneficial as the government claims, let it compete on its own merits without the crutch of a state-mandated monopoly. 

Anything less is a betrayal of the national interest and a continued endorsement of the economic plunder that has come to define the Zimbabwean fuel industry. 

The fermentation of sugarcane should be a source of national pride and economic relief, not a tool for the systematic impoverishment of a nation. 

© Tendai Ruben Mbofana is a social justice advocate and writer. To directly receive his articles please join his WhatsApp Channel on: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VaqprWCIyPtRnKpkHe08